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Habibe Ozdal
USAK Center for Eurasian Studies |
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Tuesday, 6 July 2010
Just a week ago, analysts were mainly arguing the level of U.S.-Russian relations, which grew up until now within an 18 months period. Indeed, the decision of ’resetting’ relations with Russia had a great impact considering, which Obama inherited from Bush administration. As a reminder, U.S.-Russian relations were almost in the lowest level after the Georgian War in 2008, which occurred just 6 months prior to Obama coming into power. This remark’s primary focus was on the U.S.-Russian relations after Medvedev visited the White House and met with President Obama on 24th of June. However, just two days after the Obama-Medvedev summit in which both presidents’ hailed for better relations between the two countries, 10 people were arrested as a consequence of being members of the Russian espionage ring.[1] However, what we see from high level evaluations of the both side is, the spy scandal will not be a big tackle for further developments. Obviously, both Obama and Medvedev would like to continue with their agendas.
According to the agencies, the suspects who were indicated as developing ties in the U.S. policy making circles via sending intelligence reports back to Moscow, have been charged with not registering as a representative of a foreign government and money laundering; however, not with espionage.[2] Moreover, the most important factor is the timing of the arrests. Secondly, the possible affect of the spy scandal have been in the spotlight.
It is very interesting to see that some analysis focused on espionage starting and ending within the Cold War. However, the truth is espionage has been going on since the beginning of time. Moreover, this is neither first, nor the last case. On the one hand, the Russian Foreign Intelligence (SRV) and the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), also, have their own officers who analyze information from different sources. Indeed there is nothing sinister in this common. On the other hand, it should come as little surprise, of course, that the two countries still spy on each other two decades after the end of the cold war. Most importantly, recent history shows that Washington and Moscow have been able to get past such moments when they were determined to pursue other agendas. Considering this, the main question is why were suspects exposed now if they were tracked down years ago? Moreover, how big a setback is this scandal for the recent phase of warmer U.S.-Russian relations?
One among many different theses is that; the FBI was encouraged to prosecute this a lot as a way of strengthening the head of the President Medvedev against Siloviki. From the very beginning of the Medvedev’s presidency, the Putin-Medvedev duumvirate is being emphasized.[3] Focusing on Medvedev’s moderate speeches and comparing Medvedev with the strong leader profile Putin, many people came with the same conclusion; Medvedev who came to power as a successor of Putin, on the contrary with his predecessor would like to carry on different and constructive framework on foreign policy. From this stand point, it is claimed that recent spy scandal was aiming to strengthen Medvedev’s hand against the Siloviki. However, in my point of view, it would be more appropriate to evaluate Medvedev-Putin relation as the two sides of the same coin rather than competitors.
The second most popular thesis relies on that since there is no consensus in the U.S. political elite and societies regarding the resetting of relations with Russia, in fact, the U.S. political elite have been split on the issue. The Democrats are cautiously optimistic about the reset policy. Nonetheless not everyone likes the resetting policy in Russia or in the U.S. So this can be artificially organized aiming the ’test of the reset’.
Along with the obstacles, Obama and Medvedev dodged the bullet, shelving the U.S. plan to deploy the missile defense system to Poland and Czech Republic. Mentioned decision -not to deploy missile defense systems- paved the way for cooperation on different areas from fight against terrorism in Afghanistan to cooperation in high technology. On the one hand, the U.S. and Russia agreed on nuclear arms reduction and signed a STAR-2 Treaty. On the other hand, U.S. had Russia’s support on UN sanctions against Iran, even though the very essence of the sanctions was eviscerated. One of the most important problematic issues in terms of warmer U.S.-Russian relations is Georgia. Apparently Russia and the U.S. do not share the same point of view. But still this matter does not compose a big handicap. The current level of the US-Russian relations and the mentioned cooperation areas are in line for both countries’ national interests. For Russia, this serves for the multipolar international system desire of Putin. On the other hand for the U.S., relations with Russia are being evaluated not only as a great progress but also as Obama’s unique foreign policy success.
As a response to the second question mentioned above, how big a setback is this scandal for the recent phase of warmer U.S.-Russian relations?, obviously, it all depends on the impact that the governments want it to have. These things happen fairly often and usually the question is response. The reset is continuing. Under the President Bush administration, the relations between Russia and the US were never at its best. Fairly, America is hoping the episode will do minimal damage to reset.
An analysis of the current U.S.-Russian relationship shows that both sides are willing to extend the positive agenda and to go beyond the disarmament and non-proliferation questions, where they have achieved considerable success. Considering, the state of relations with Russia, which Obama inherited from Bush administration, the current level of relations can be evaluated as a major progress. Even though some analysts insist on the idea that "Russia is the same Russia so that there is no need to resetting or renaming the relations with Russia”, it seems that the spy scandal will not have at least traumatic affect on U.S.-Russian relations. Since the Obama administration announced that it would not expel the Russian diplomats and expressed no indignation that its putative partner was spying on it, it seems that President Obama’s plan is to largely ignore the issue publicly, leaving it to diplomats and investigators to handle, while he moves on to what he sees as more important matters.
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[1] Мария Табак, "Обвиняемым в шпионаже в пользу РФ грозит до 25 лет тюрьмы - Минюст США", РИА Новости, 29/06/2010.
[2] Owen Bowcott, "Ten ’Russian Spies’ Arrested in US", The Guardian, 28/06/2010.
[3] For more information please refer to; Ian Bremmer and Samuel Charap, "The Siloviki in Putin’s Russia: Who They Are and What They Want", The Washington Quarterly, 30:1 (Winter 2006-2007) pp. 83–92; Eberhard Schneider, "Split in the Russian Political Tandem Putin-Medvedev?", Caucasian Review Of International Affairs, 3:2 (Spring 2009), pp. 219-225.
