Why the Turkish People?
The public influence on foreign policy began to increase after Turgut Ozal’s term and accelerated with the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government in Turkey. Nowadays Turkish people are more interested in foreign policy. The increase in the number of newspaper pages and the minutes in newscasts allocated to foreign policy is the manifest evident of such interest. Thus, Turkish people are quite different from the Americans about their perceived importance level of foreign policy. Opposing to the American people[i], the foreign policy influence the incumbent evaluations, so the voting preferences.
This is the reason why the incumbent prime minister takes the public opinion polls so seriously. Moreover, these polls are used more to be in accordance with than to manipulate or lead the public opinion.In addition, having nearly half of the votes of the population pushed the government to represent ordinary citizens’ preferences for the upcoming elections. The public predispositions and expectations on foreign policy will also influence the government. Therefore, the public has a major influence on foreign policy in Turkey.
Did Obama Win the Hearts of the Turkish People?
Obama gathered the sympathies of the Turkish people personally. Turkish people generated compassion toward Obama as an unprivileged African American. Thus, the excitement toward an African American president all around the world was applicable to Turkey too. Moreover, being a successor of notorious George W. Bush administration increased the expectations of Turkish people. That is the reason for their thrillto sacrifice 44 sheep for his election.[ii]
In addition, the Turkish journalists often overemphasized his middle name “Hussein”,which gave the impression of being related to Islam if not implying being a secret Muslim as a conspiracy. Not only as a Muslim name but also as a Turkish name, “Hussein” gives the impression of familiarity to Obama. Moreover, his visit to Turkey boosted his image not because it was his first official visit to an overseas country but because the trip received a lot of media coverage with his well studied movements.
For his administration, Hillary Clinton as a familiar face in cabinet made a positive impact. Hillary Clinton’s visit to Turkey as the Secretary of State should not be underestimated. The Clintons are quite popular in Turkey. Hillary and Bill Clinton’s visit to Turkey in 1999 and the photo of the baby holding his nose has created an affinity towards the couple. Thus, Hillary Clinton is another positive impact on Obama’s image.
Why Does Anti-Americanism Linger in Turkey?
However, this personal popularity does not significantly improve the US’ image. The Bush administration’s damage does not seem to be rectifiable in a short time. According to Pew Research Center Polls the US favorability rate decreased to 9% in Bush’s term (2007) from 52% in 1999-2000.A May 2007 Gallup Poll indicated that 64% of Turkish people perceive the US as hostile to Turkey while only 5% see the US as friendly. The percentage viewing the US as friendly increased to 12% in 2008 and to 14% in 2009. Thus, it seems that Obama’s presidency did not significantly change the perceptions in Turkey. The favorability rates in Turkey are the lowest among 25 countries, most of which changed drastically after the Obama administration. For example, in France, one of the countries with high anti-American sentiments, the rates jumped to 75% from 42%.
Obama’s first visit to Turkey and warm welcome to the Turkish PM in December may attract the attention of the pundit, and moreover, may influence high ranking bureaucrats. Yet, ordinary Turkish citizens will not change their minds about a country with small tricks such as stroking a cat or ceasing the speech during the call to prayer. Thus, on a personal level Obama may enjoy popularity in Turkey. But this popularity did not directly increase the favorability ratings of the US. There is still a lingering distrust of the US government.
There are two approaches for this split between the president and the country. First is the idea that Obama is incapable of changing the country’s direction, and the second and worse approach is that this is a deliberate policy.Turkish people attach enormous power to the US if not see it as omnipotent. Notwithstanding the negative image, Turkish people point to the US as the first county that would help Turkey in an emergency. According to USAK (International Strategic Research Organization) Foreign Policy Perception Polls in 2004(with 27.50%), in 2005 (with 24.00%) and in 2009(with 25.45%) the US remains at the top of the list because people see the US as capable. Thus, the stagnancy of the US on the PKK, Armenia and Cyprus issues create negative impressions about the US. The public interprets this inertia as hostility.
Unfortunately Obama has not made a significant move that would get the attention of Turkish people on these delicate issues. The PKK issue is the most important issue that influences the US’ image. The trauma of putting sacks over the heads of Turkish soldiers in Sulaymaniyah still lingers. And the US weapons in the hands of PKK militants exacerbated the situation. These two solid incidents caused a threat perception from the US. After November 5, 2007 the cooperation and intelligence sharing changed the hostile image. Yet, other than minor improvements such as a trilateral committee to fight against terrorism-which will not get public attention- the Obama administration has not taken visible steps on the PKK issue. As SedatLaciner puts it, the US may help Turkey to capture high-ranking PKK militants through joint operations.[iii]Such operations would balance the impact of Suleymaniyah and boost the US’ image.
As another point, the Turkish public did not get the expected support about the Cyprus and Armenia issues. There is no significant improvement about Cyprus case and the isolation of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) still remains. On the other hand, there have been significant happenings on the Armenian case, but it is hard to see significant US support. Obama did not use the term “genocide” to address the 1915 incidents, despite the pressure of the Armenian lobby, but he used a similar word in Armenian[iv]. The agreement between Turkey and Armenia is an important step. Yet, it is questionable to be perceived positively by Turkish people in order to credit the US for the incident.
Conclusion
This does not mean there is no way to change the situation. Actually, Turkish people want to believe Obama and his sincerity. Yet, they could not see a substantial step to support their expectations. According to the 2005 USAK Turkey-USA Relations survey the thorniest obstacle in Turkish-American relations for 75% of Turkish peoplewas the existence of PKK in Northern Iraq. I think the PKK issue is still at the top of the list. Yet, the Turkish public has not seen the Obama administration take a substantial step about the PKK issue. For the Turkish public it seems that literally nothing has changed after the November 5 negotiations.Thus, Obama needs to reveal his sincerity about substantial issues, especially regarding the PKK.
Mehmet Yegin is a Researcher at USAK Center for Transatlantic Studies
[i] John Mueller, “American Foreign Policy and Public Opinion in a New Era:Eleven Proposition”, in Barbara Norrander and Clyde Wilcox, (ed.) Understanding Public Opinion, (Washington D.C.: CQ Press,2002), pp. 149-172.
[ii] Ihsan Bal, “Turkey: Sacrificing 44 Sheep for Obama”, The Journal of Turkish Weekly, 21 January, 2009
[iii] “Model Ortaklıgın içi Dolmalı”[Model Partnership Needs to be Specified],USAK Gündem, 22 December, 2009.
[iv] He used " Meds Yeghern" instead
