Kaitlin MacKenzie JTW Columnist printable version send your friend

Monday, 7 December 2009

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to visit the White House today, December 7, to meet with US President Barack Obama. This meeting comes at a key time for both countries: Washington is seeking to continue its “strategic partnership” with Ankara and Turkey has recently faced a barrage of accusations that it is turning away from the West. As such, a face-to-face meeting between the countries’ leaders raises questions as to what items will be on the agenda and what, if any, progress will be made.

Turkey and the US have both welcomed new voices in their governments this past year, with the inauguration of Barack Obama and appointment of Ahmet Davutoglu as Turkish Foreign Minister being the most noteworthy of these changes. The new US president had hoped to usher in a new era in Turkish-US relations, which had soured during the course of the Bush years, and had hoped that his auspicious speeches given in Ankara and Cairo would aid in renewing the countries’ partnership. Only a few months after Obama’s inauguration, Ankara named a new Foreign Minister: Ahmet Davutoglu, an international relations professor and former foreign policy advisor to the prime minister, whom many credit as the architect of Turkey’s new foreign policy.

Both men have received praise, as well as criticism, for their approaches, though for markedly different reasons. Turkey’s foreign policy has, over recent years, become more open to its eastern neighbors, and Turkey’s political and economic ties to neighboring countries have soared. Past administrations had focused nearly exclusively on Turkey’s relations with the West, while the current administration has gained notoriety for the attention it has paid not only to its neighbors, but also to fellow Muslim majority states. Such a shift has engendered much discussion, both in Turkey and abroad, of what many observers claim to be a reorientation in Turkish foreign policy. Charges that Turkey is turning its back on the West and embracing the East have widely circulated, though Erdogan and Davutoglu have been quick to defend their policies and reiterate the importance and immutability of Turkey’s relationship with the West.

Meeting amid such frenzied speculation regarding Turkey’s foreign policy, Erdogan and Obama will surely touch upon the issue of Turkey’s trajectory, for its implications are wide ranging. Over the past few months, a string of decisions made by Ankara have drawn Washington’s attention and not necessarily in a good way. Philip Gordon, assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasian affairs, recently stated that there are currently" more points of disagreement than of agreement" between Washington and Ankara. Gordon is most likely referencing Turkey’s relations with Israel and Iran, as well as domestic Turkish issues of which Washington is wary. There are also rumors of the Erdogan administration’s alleged “secret Islamist ideology”, which detractors have claimed is the true motivation behind the Turkish government’s increased relations with its neighboring states.

However this may be, Washington has given Turkey credit for its steps to mend diplomatic fences with Armenia and has long praised Ankara’s increased economic and diplomatic ties with countries with which the US has much less stable (if any) links, such as Syria, Iran, and Iraq. This position has allowed Turkey to play the role of “honest broker” between Washington and Damascus, or, as recently witnessed, between Washington and Tehran, though the Ankara-Tehran relationship is not entirely viewed in a positive light. Furthermore, Mr. Davutoglu has repeatedly explained his government’s reasoning behind its actions, referred to as the “zero-problems-with-neighbors policy”. Due to Turkey’s geographical location, with several problematic countries sharing its borders, Ankara argues that its position in this “troubled neighborhood” warrants increased diplomacy and economic integration. Such ties aim to decrease violence and improve the domestic conditions of Turkey and its neighbors, which aids regional stability. Ankara argues that it has pursued these policies to serve Turkey’s national interests and that ameliorating its regional situation is not mutually exclusive from its Western friendships and alliances.

Although Turkey-US relations have had their ups and downs, Ankara and Washington face many of the same foreign policy issues today. This especially true considering Obama’s recent decision to send at least 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan. As a NATO member and a country trusted by the Afghani people, Turkey is a key partner for the US in Afghanistan, and Obama is surely aware of this fact. Indeed, US Ambassador to Ankara James Jeffrey has confirmed that President Obama has requested more Turkish troops be sent to aid the NATO alliance in Afghanistan. It is speculated that Washington will ask that Ankara be flexible both in terms of the number of troops sent as well as their allocation. Turkey has already deployed roughly 1,750 peacekeeping troops to Afghanistan, but the US had hoped that Turkey would agree to play a larger role in the conflict. But, speaking before his trip to Washington, D.C. on Sunday, Erdogan stated that Turkey has already sent the “necessary number” of troops. He continued to say that “For the moment, we have done what we had to do [in Afghanistan]; our contingent of soldiers is at a useful number.”[i]

Some observers expect Obama to touch upon Turkey’s relations that run contrary to US interests, such as Turkey’s relations with Israel in light of the cancelled military exercise and criticism of the Gaza situation, or perhaps bring up Turkey’s invitation to Sudanese President al-Bashir, which received an outpouring of criticism. Also to be considered is Washington’s growing unease with the familiarity and support shown by Erdogan towards Iran. In the domestic arena, the US has been carefully watching the Ergenekon trial and the government’s handling of the media. Regarding media freedoms, US officials have closely followed the situation of the Dogan media group, against which the government levied a $2.5 billion fine; the media conglomerate is known for its opposition to the AKP government and claims the fine is politically motivated. But, despite these possible issues of contention, it seems more likely that President Obama would avoid matters of disagreement and would instead focus upon matters of agreement. With Turkey playing a key role in the region, especially in Afghanistan, the US is hesitant to chastise such an important ally. Turkey’s influence has grown substantially over the past seven years, and is not going to be receptive to what it views as a bossy or demanding attitude from Washington, as was witnessed when Turkey refused to allow the US to use Incirlik air base to open up a northern front in the Iraq war. Whether Washington attempts to use its support of Turkey’s EU membership or the Armenian issue as leverage against Turkey remains to be seen, but Obama is respectfully aware of Turkey’s importance and independence, and seems unlikely to risk straining Turkish-American relations.

Though Ankara maintains that its NATO membership is its “strongest alliance”, its rebuttal of anti-Western dealings has been more nonchalant than frantic, and strong anti-American sentiments are still a force to be reckoned with inside Turkey. The following days should prove to be an interesting indication of the road that lies ahead.