Recently the Turkish government has started to pursue a pro-active policy on delicate issues both in the domestic and foreign policy spheres, and this political choice has the potential of having serious repercussions for the leading party’s political power on the public level. Political will put forward in terms of solving the Kurdish issue and normalizing Turkish-Armenian relations are two issues among those being criticized by opposition parties in the country. Perhaps due to poorly managed public relations, this creates a favourable environment for opposition party leaders to harshly criticize the AKP government and to gain some points from this situation. However, these initiatives have the potential to change the current status quo in the region.
In terms of the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement, similar developments can be seen on Armenian side too, and the Armenian government’s position is not better than their Turkish counterparts. Sarkisian’s meetings with intellectuals in Armenia or Diaspora members abroad were anything but positive for the president’s political career. Yet, both Turkish and Armenian governments are taking steps that would break taboos on the socio-political level.
Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers have left behind one of the main obstacles on the way to the long lasting solution on 10 October 2009. Protocols that were released six weeks ago were signed both by Turkey and Armenia in spite of the last minute crisis that emerged in Zurich. Armenian Minister Nalbandyan, implicitly referring to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, wanted to emphasize the principle of starting relations unconditionally. However, his counterpart Ahmet Davudoglu wanted to underline the importance of the solution of all regional problems in the South Caucasus, an indirect reference to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Existence of these issues in the texts of the ministers’ speeches caused the ceremony’s start to be delayed, but Turkey’s proposition to cancel ministerial speeches after the ceremony helped to overcome this problem. Moreover, once again the position of the international community proved to be efficient in terms of overcoming this situation when the necessary political will was shown by Minsk Group members, particularly Russia and the US.
There are still some obstacles ahead for reaching a long lasting solution in the Caucasus. One of the main questions is how fast the next steps will be taken for these protocols to be ratified in the national parliaments of Turkey and Armenia. Frankly speaking, the Turkish government continues to emphasize the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and underlines that these two processes are not independent from each other. It has the majority to ratify the protocols in the parliament, but, as Erdogan suggests, this process would not be easy without a solution in Karabagh. In Armenia, the leading party is in power with the support of the coalition party, and it is hard to presume whether members of parliament are going to vote in favour of the protocols. Moreover, the hardliner Dashnaktsutyun party threatens the government with ‘regime change’ and pushes for the president’s resignation. Remembering the fate of Levon Ter-Petrossian, it becomes harder to ignore these kinds of comments from opposition parties.
Under these circumstances, it is important that this process be concluded as soon as possible for the stability of the region. Another war between Azerbaijan and Armenia would definitely deeply affect the future of many projects and would change the status quo once again after the Georgia-Russia war. Thus, the role of international community is quite delicate from now on.
It seems that the Armenian President, who has decided to come to the football match that will be played on October 14th, expects Turkey to take the next step, ratifying the protocols, in a “reasonable timeframe”. Sarkisian’s position is understandable, since he had to bear serious opposition during the last six weeks. However, it is also Armenia and Azerbaijan’s obligation to present a decisive stance for the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Sarkisian and Aliyev convened for the solution of this problem in 2009 more than Kocharyan and Aliyev did in nearly half a decade. Both parties at least preserve their optimism regarding a solution and this chance should not be missed. Unless ratifying the protocols under the circumstances of ignoring Azerbaijan’s demands would not pave the way for a further integration process in the Caucasus that would reach to Central Asia. Rather, this would have the potential of exposing other risks in the region and could cause Azerbaijan to take an aggressive position due to a feeling of isolation in the region.
Hasan Selim Özertem
Researcher, USAK Center for Eurasian Studies
12 October 2009
