Sundeep Waslekar Director of Strategic Foresight Guest Columnist printable version send your friend message to author add comment ()

Monday, 10 August 2009

One of the biggest questions of the 21st century is what will happen to the Treaty of Westphalia when it celebrates its 400th anniversary in 2048. The historic treaty that ended the 30-year war in Europe in the 17th century established two principles – the concept of state sovereignty and the use of trans-boundary watercourses as instruments of cooperation rather than causes of conflict. The same Europe that gave birth to the concept of sovereignty has led the journey to the post-sovereign world. Instead of the Roman Catholic Church dictating to the princes, it is now the Brussels Bureaucracy overriding nation-states. Despite criticism and competitive financial nationalism in response to the economic crisis of 2009, the model works. There is now free movement of capital, labour and people. More important, there is a noticeable European spirit. Will the post-sovereign sphere spread to Turkey, Ukraine and finally Russia by 2048? Will Switzerland embrace it? Besides the European model of shared sovereignty, another model of traded sovereignty is emerging in parts of the world. Interestingly, it is happening due to the shortage of water. In years to come, as sensitivity to climate change increases and dependence on oil declines, hydro-electricity will be an added factor. Large countries like Saudi Arabia and China are purchasing tracks of land – normally larger than a million acres each time – in Africa and the former Soviet Union. They grow crops for importing home. It is not about shortage of land. Both Saudi Arabia and China are among the world’s ten largest countries in geographic area. It is about shortage of water to grow food crops. Unlike the colonial estates of cash crops, the new investors in foreign agricultural land are essentially growing food crops. In fact, Gitanjali Bakshi, my colleague at Strategic Foresight Group, has written an article this month that elaborates further on this trend and its growing popularity in the Middle East. These are still early days for sovereign investors in food land. Soon the question of security of their land will come up. Will the Chinese military guard its crops in Sudan or will China rely on the Sudanese security? Pakistan is offering a double deal – agricultural land and special security forces to protect it. Will the investors buy it, considering the growing influence of Taliban in Pakistan or will they insist on arranging their own security? One of the reasons for the failure to tap the massive potential of the Nepalese rivers through India-Nepal cooperation is the question of sovereignty. The Indian government will be happy to invest huge amounts in hydro-electricity projects in Nepal if it can export its army to guard them. Nepal insists on its own army in its sovereign territory. (The other main reason is a dispute over price but being a commercial dispute, this should be easier to resolve.) As miles and miles of land in one country are leased by another country to produce food or energy in the next few decades, our conventional idea of sovereignty will be challenged. Another principle of the Peace of Westphalia was about using trans-boundary watercourses for cooperation and common prosperity of all parties. Cardinal Mazarin, the great French statesman, decided to treat Rhine River as a corridor for fair trade rather than a boundary, unlike his predecessors. Moreover, he conducted a thorough study of the entire river system in the Hapsburg Empire. He made plans for cooperative development of Vistula River in Poland, Oder River, Elbe Rover in Bohemia (today’s Czech Republic), Weser and Ems Rivers in Germany and of course, the Rhine. We need a Mazarin plan for all parts of Asia today. If we can link Turkish rivers to Syria and Lebanon and Syrian and Lebanese rivers to Jordan, Israel and Palestine, a permanent peace between Israel and all Arab people (including but not limited to the Palestine) will be possible. Also, it will end age-old competition between the Turks and Arabs. This will demand statesmanship on the part of the Turkish leaders but Prime Minister Erdogan is an outstanding statesman, supported by a high calibre team, who can deliver such vision. Will he be the Mazarin of the 21st century? China and India can also negotiate a new blueprint for turning rivers into corridors of prosperity not only for Brahmaputra (Yarlong Tsangpo) River which is shared by them and Bangladesh but also for other rivers either of them shares with Nepal, Bangladesh, Burma, Vietnam, Thailand, Mongolia, Kazakhstan and Russia. Both countries have visionary leaders. Will they play Mazarin? Will India and Pakistan convert receding Indus into a corridor of prosperity for their people, and especially for the people of Kashmir, finally publicly acknowledging that Pakistan’s interest in Kashmir is actually in the river basins and therefore Mazarin-style integrated river development for fair trade is the only way out rather than carrying on with the myth of a religion-based boundary? If Turkey and Syria, Israel and Lebanon, China and India lead the way, a new light might illuminate life in almost 260 trans-boundary river basins in the world. It took thirty years of war and millions of dead people for the Westphalia, underpinned by the watercourses cooperation arrangement, to emerge. I hope that the statesmen of Asia will demonstrate wisdom before wars ignite a much worse tragedy in this century.

May 2009