Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan: Ready to ‘Gas’ Nabucco!
Azerbaijan has reiterated a number of times that it is ready to supply gas to Nabucco. Its recent gas export deal with Russia only includes a small amount of yield, 500 million cubic metres annually. In three to five years, the second phase of the Shah Deniz project will provide up to 16 billion cubic metres of gas per year, and a substantial amount of this will fill the Nabucco pipeline. Whatever the amount Shah Deniz supplies in the near future, Nabucco is of great strategic importance for Azerbaijan since it would further strengthen Azerbaijan’s hands in its relations with the outside world, either with Russia, Iran, Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, the US or with the EU. Nevertheless, it would be too optimistic to think that Azerbaijan would be able to use Nabucco to resolve the Nagorno Karabakh problem. The ‘Contract of the Century’ and BTC could not change any other actors’ attitudes on the resolution of the problem. To be more specific, neither the initial Russian involvement in the development of the ACG oil deposits nor the energy companies of the western countries in this and other projects did much in the way of changing their governments’ policies towards the NK issue. Nevertheless Azerbaijan has no other option but to be part of Nabucco to the end.
After the death of previous President Saparmurat Niyazov, the new leader of Turkmenistan, Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov, has been looking to open up its country to the outside world. A number of reforms in education and other fields have been tried. Berdimuhammedov is trying to use the country’s huge gas reserves as a strategy to link it with the outside world and benefit from their economic prospects. He knows well that Turkmenistan cannot rely on Russia as the only major energy export direction. High level visits between Washington, Ashgabat and Brussels in June seem to have increased hopes of doing business between the two capitals that had been problematic during the time of Niyazov. Nevertheless Turkmenistan is too dependent on Russia, and it is not easy to pursue energy policies that may cross Moscow. It needs more encouragement and support, especially when the discussions on the Caspian status problem and environmental issues are being once again heated by Russia and Iran in order to discredit the Turkmen leg of Nabucco. So participants of Nabucco, including Turkmenistan, should avoid the mistakes they made in the negotiations for the building of the Trans-Caspian pipeline in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Broader Benefit of Nabucco, if Iran in…
Among the possible gas suppliers of Nabucco, Iran has the biggest potential not only in terms of reserves, as it has the second largest deposits in the world, but also in its geographical proximity to Europe via Turkey. Yet, as is well known, the US, even now under Obama Administration, has also opposed Iran’s participation in the project before getting concrete compromises on the latter’s nuclear issue. If Iran is allowed to take part, there would be a great benefit not only for having more suppliers for Nabucco, but also for helping regional and international security with respect to the Iranian nuclear dispute.
There is no need to say anything about the Iranian will and real need for its economy to supply gas to Nabucco. They are apparently there, while just few days ago Iranian officials announced their commitment to provide at least 10 billion cubic metres of gas to Nabucco. No welcome has been shown from the US and the EU for this pledge though. If Iran joined, there would be no problem or worry about whether there would be enough resources to fill the line. Such participation could even open the way for many other energy pipelines, having the potential to totally end Europe’s dependence on Russian gas that Nabucco alone lacks, with its 31 billion cubic metres of gas transportation potential, and other kinds of economic ventures from which all sides can benefit greatly.
If the logic of interdependence that Obama has been promoting during his recent visits to Turkey, Egypt and Russia is applied to this case, Iran can be expected to reinstate its rightful place within the international community. For instance, when Obama came to Turkey, he urged Turkish officials to restore the broken relationship with Armenia while having in his mind that increased diplomatic and economic relations between Ankara and Yerevan could resolve the disputes between them. This would then, for the US administration, open other opportunities to improve regional cooperation, including energy transportation in the East-West direction, and security.
But, when the same is said for Iran’s participation in Nabucco, the US and the EU see no use of it. On the other hand, Obama is trying to communicate with Iran in various ways to resolve the nuclear and other issues, while Iran is either rejecting them or expecting more concrete steps to be taken by the US government. Iranian participation in the Nabucco project can in fact be a great opportunity for both the US and Iran to build up what they lack most in their relationships – mutual trust. Thus, if US removed its objection to Iran’s participation in Nabucco, this would not only help reduce European gas dependence on Russia, but would also give Obama a chance to test if his model of interdependence works on regional and international security.
The ‘Contract of the Century’ has accomplished a lot with its arm of BTC. Nevertheless its contribution to domestic political, social and economic development in the South Caucasus and the Caspian has still remained too short. The example of the ‘Contract of the Century’ is thus not painting a clear picture that, when Nabucco is put into service, it will clear away much of the existing domestic political, social and economic problems of the gas suppliers. Yet Nabucco is a much more complex venture with a number of participating states having diverse regional and global interests. Thus, if or when it is completed, its contribution can and should be expected in the development and/or improvement of the relationships among those participating states and regions. For instance, after Azerbaijan, now Turkmenistan’s connection to the West with a very solid project like Nabucco will increase Ashgabat’s, and even Tashkent’s self confidence, for building a much more balanced relationship with Russia and give way for the development of similar projects in the western direction. Though the chance of it becoming real seems slim, US acceptance of Iranian participation in Nabucco may help start a new beginning between Tehran and Washington in which it would be much easier for them to discuss the nuclear issue of Iran and reduce their differences in other matters in the Middle East.
E-mail: gunerozkan005@yahoo.com
