Arzu Celalifer Ekinci USAK Center for Energy Studies printable version send your friend

Thursday, 11 June 2009

As elections come closer a highly contentious atmosphere can be felt both in the political arena and the streets, since there was a serious rivalry among candidates through TV debate programs, electoral meetings and campaigns. The coming presidential election is gearing up to be more competitive and sensitive as compared to similar past elections.

There are four candidates for the 10^th presidential elections to be held in Iran on 12 June 2009. Incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, war-time Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi, two-times Parliament (Majlis) Speaker and cleric Mehdi Karroubi and Former Revolutionary Guard Commander and Secretary of Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei.

Crowded groups of supporters were on the streets for demonstrations during that period. It can be said the 10^th presidential election process was different from the previous two periods. The campaigns have been marked by criticisms and attacks not previously seen in Iranian politics. For the first time since the Revolution, the candidates have been given the right to participate in TV debates which was a great chance for Iranian society to know the candidates better. Doubtless those debates have affected the public opinion that would determine the election result.

In fact, an important part of the Iranian society has been reluctant to participate in elections for many years. But it seems that this time a part of silent votes is about awakening. We can talk about three groups of people which are reluctant to participate in elections. The first group defends the idea that they could question the legitimacy of the regime by not voting, the second one say that the candidates are not the ones they choose so voting in favor of them is nonsense. The third group claims that by not participating in elections the situation is going to be worse and the regime will collapse at the end. But today it seems that the strategy of not participating in elections is out of date and a considerable part of this silent electoral body thinks that being part of this process is indispensible and boycotting the elections will not change anything anymore. As a matter of fact this new development seems to bring a new breath to elections and the participation rate of the society will determine the results.

Candidates’ campaigns have been shaped around four main issues. A new approach in the nuclear program case, the prospective dialogue process with the U.S, the better economic policies, improving human rights such as supporting women rights, freedom of press, freedom of expression, better social life conditions and privacy of private life.

The most noteworthy difference of the 10^th elections is that the candidates have used the relations with the U.S as a tool for their campaigns. It can be remembered that the candidates in previous terms have even not dared to pronounce such a thing which was a taboo. Another positive and important development was the TV debates in which the candidates openly criticized the government without considering any red lines and have been given the chance to defend their programs and goals. Another striking issue was the participation of potential first ladies in electoral campaigns. It can be said that the picture drawn is a good sign of the democratization process in Iranian politics and also in the election system.

Still, we cannot say any definite thing when we are talking about a variable country like Iran. But the general situation of the candidates and the impression of the public opinion can give us some clues.

Ahmadinejad: He has been targeted by harsh critics of all candidates. Both reformist and conservative candidates accused him because of the policies regarding the nuclear program which aided the referral of the country to the Security Council. And they also criticized him because of the explanations regarding Israel and western countries that caused tension with the international arena. Another important issue that put pressure on Ahmedinejad was for sure the worse situation of the economy. And the final critics were restrictions on freedom of the press, human rights activists, non-governmental organizations, university students and women have also intensified during these four years.

Despite all those harsh critics toward his economic, foreign and social policies Ahmadinejad has also advantages. First of all he has the support of the religious leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Although the leader has not mentioned any name openly, in his speeches it can be understood that he intends President Ahmadinejad. On the other hand, while Ahmadinejad is being criticized even by the conservative wing he also has the support of 14 different conservative groups. This means that Ahmadinejad has a noteworthy electoral body from the beginning[1]. Still this advantageous situation can be changed by the participation rate of electorates. It is estimated that in the case of the participation of 27 million or more the victory chance of the reformists will increase, but in the case of participation of 25 million or fewer Ahmadinejad’s chance of winning will be about  65%[2].

Mousavi: The reformist Mir Hossein Mousavi has emerged as the main challenger to President Ahmadinejad. He is also the candidate being supported by former President Mohammad Khatami. Khatami has withdrawn from the elections to prevent the spilt of reformist ballots and declared that he supports Mir Hossein Mousavi. But although this attempt may prevent the split of ballots, it also may anger the supporters of Khatami. And they may show their reactions by not using their votes in favor of Mousavi or giving votes to another candidate rather him.

It can be said that Mousavi has attracted large crowds and much media attention at recent campaign rallies. He has the advantage of addressing both reformist and conservative votes[3]. He was supported by religious leader Ayatollah Khomeini after the Revolution and he was the last Prime Minister of Iran during the Iran – Iraq war. Despite all of the worse conditions during the war time, he is still remembered by his successful economic policies. This feature of him can attract the part of people who are suffering from the bad economic conditions[4]. Participation of his spouse Ms. Zahra Rahnavard to the campaign is also another winning card for Mousavi. The activities of the first female chancellor of Iran after the Revolution and her speeches about women’s rights have drawn the attention of modern youth and women. Another advantage of the Mousavi is his ethnic origin. Since he was born in East Azerbaijan he also can have the support of many Azeris.

Since he has not been active in the political arena for the last 20 years, the majority of young people do not have idea about him and this can be considered a disadvantage. But it seems that he managed to close this gap during his campaign time by his electoral meetings and TV debates.

Karroubi: the second reformist challenger to Ahmadinejad is Mehdi Karroubi who is a cleric and was the Parliament Speaker for two terms. One of his advantages is his ethnic origin (Lor), and the other advantage is his religious identity. He also has some other important cards such as having his own political party and his own newspaper. He is also criticizing Ahmadinejad for his wrong economic and foreign policies. He is known as the ‘Sheikh of Reforms’ due his ideas about the revision of the constitution and system. It can be said that he has a significant group of supporters. But still it is estimated that most of the reformist supporters will probably vote for Mousavi rather than Karroubi to prevent the split of votes. But still there is a risk of split of reformist votes because of his participation in elections.

Rezaei: The other challenger to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is conservative candidate Mohsen Rezaei. Although he was successful in TV debates and there has been an increase in his votes during those programs, it is estimated that he could just split the conservative votes which would be in favor of reformists. He has drawn the attention of many people by criticizing the Ahmadinejad government as a conservative.

Conclusion

The public opinion is being shaped by election campaigns, meetings and TV debates, and the results of polls and analyses all show us that the main competition will be between reformist candidate Mousavi and incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Although the polls cannot display the whole picture and situation completely, they can give us an idea about some aspects of the elections. For example the polls show us that the supporter votes of Ahmadinejad have declined and the supporter votes of Mousavi and Rezaei have increased after the TV debates.

And the polls also show that the elections will probably happen in two stages. And the participation rate of the electorates will be the main determining factor. In the case of the awakening of silent votes the reformists’ chance will increase. But in the case of the participation of 25 million or fewer the triumph of President Ahmadinejad seems inevitable. Still we are talking about Iran, the country that experienced surprises in previous elections and further surprises are always possible.