Continuing negotiations in order to normalize relations between Turkey and Armenia produced a “Road Map”, which created discussions also about Turkey-Azerbaijan relations and future of the politics of the Caucasus, particularly, security and energy dimension of it. Although Turkey recognized Armenia as an independent state, normal diplomatic ties have not been established between the two countries and the territorial borders of the two neighbours were closed. Armenian genocide allegations and the Armenian policy towards the allegations and Armenian administrations’ hesitance to accept inviolability of borders prevented the normal diplomatic relations to be established between Turkey and Armenia. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict also caused the closure of Turkish-Armenian land border. Since Turkey closed the land border with Armenia, after the Armenian occupation of Kelbecer.
There were negotiations between Turkey and Armenia, which reached a new stage in 2009, with the “Road Map”. The developments in the Caucasus in August 2008 had also implications on Turkish-Armenian relations. The conflict between Russia and Georgia changed the West’s view about Russia, and also increased Turkey’s strategic importance for the West in the Caucasus. There are parallels between the developments in August 2008 and events just at the end of the Second World War, when eastern European states became under the control of the Soviet Union, and Stalin demanded military stations in Bosporus and territory from Turkey. These developments, and increasing tension between East and West, opened the way for Turkey’s membership of NATO in 1952. Similarly today, tension between Russia and the West forced the Caucasian states to recalculate their strategic parameters and foreign policies. The US also reassessed its policy towards Armenia after the Russia-Georgia conflict. Some policy makers in the US thought that Armenia should be tied to the West and “rescued” from the Russian domination as soon as possible. The key country in this strategy is Turkey. For this reason Turkey faced pressure to open the land border with Armenia. The US and Europe wanted dialogue to be started between Turkey and Armenia. In this atmosphere, the Armenian President’s invitation to the Turkish President to watch together a football match between the two national teams was seen as reminiscent of the ping-pong diplomacy during the thaw in US-Chinese relations in 1971. After long discussions, Turkish President Abdullah Gül went to Armenia for the football match on 6 September 2008.
Armenia also faced difficulty during the conflict between Russia and Georgia since Georgia is important for Armenia’s trade to the outside world. Two thirds of foreign goods come to Armenia from Georgia. Armenia’s borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey were closed due to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Armenia’s dependency on Russia should be reconsidered after the Russian-Georgian crisis, and Armenia should also consider its relations with Turkey in this atmosphere. These were the factors that the Armenian administration considered in the rapprochement with Turkey. For Turkey to normalize its relations with Armenia would support its zero problem with neighbors policy and would reduce pressure from the US and the EU. It would also be helpful for the US administration to prevent Armenian diaspora’s attempts to pass a resolution supporting “genocide” allegations from the Congress.
The establishment of the normal diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia depends on Armenia’s position regarding the 1915 events and Armenia’s acceptance of inviolability of the Turkish-Armenian border. The opening of the Turkish-Armenian land border depends on the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In the current situation and the stage, Turkey would expect Armenia to accept its proposal to set up an international commission to search the 1915 events. The idea to set up a scientific commission and study the matter is an idea that the Armenian diaspora strongly rejected. To establish normal diplomatic relations Armenia should also sign a declaration to accept inviolability of borders with Turkey. There are problems due to the Armenian Declaration of Independence (article 11) and statements from high level Armenian officials regarding this issue.
It seems that after the long negotiations there are improvements in the above mentioned issues regarding the establishment of the diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia. However there are also still risks about these issues. Armenian domestic politics and opposition of some political groups for the rapprochement with Turkey pose potential danger for the negotiations. The Armenian government might have less constrain after the withdrawal of Armenian Revolutionary Front from the coalition government. However, Armenian diaspora and their efforts to get a resolution about the allegations from the Congress create another danger for the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. If the US administration manages to reduce the diaspora’s influence on Armenia, that would be helpful to improving Turkish-Armenian relations.
The opening of Turkish-Armenian land border is more difficult issue since it depends on the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Negotiations conducted under the aegis of the OSCE Minsk Group have not produced a result and “Frozen Conflict” situation has continued since the cease fire of 1994. The occupation of the territory of Azerbaijan and the use of force to change the recognized borders of Azerbaijan were violations of the Helsinki Final Act, the UN Charter, Charter of Paris and OSCE decisions. Azerbaijan expects the UN and international community to take the lead to end the occupation of its territories. There were several UN Security Council Resolutions calling for withdrawal of the occupying forces: UN Security Council Resolution 822, passed on 30th April 1993; resolution 853 passed on 29th July 1993; resolution 874 passed on 14th October 1993 and 884 passed on 11th November 1993. The most recent important resolution was adopted in the 62nd session of the UN General Assembly on 14th of March 2008. The resolution on “The situation in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan” was adopted with 39 votes in favor, seven against and 100 abstentions. The resolution supports the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan within its internationally recognized borders and demands the withdrawal of all Armenian forces from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan. The resolution confirms the integral right of the population expelled from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan to return to the homes. The position of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs regarding the UN resolution disappointed Azerbaijan, since all co-chairs voted against the resolution.
The Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia met in Prague to discuss the problem. However, they have not reached an agreement yet. Possible solution would be on the basis of Madrid Principles of November 2007. Both sides also signed declaration in Moscow in November 2008.
Armenia would benefit much more than Turkey in the case of the opening of the land border between the two countries. Armenia could not be a meaningful economic partner for Turkey since Armenia’s trade volume so small and its economy is very much depends on out side help. However, as was shown during the Russian-Georgian conflict, for the stability of the Armenian economy, it would be necessary for Armenia to have open land border with Turkey and to normalize its relations with all neighboring countries. For Turkey, Azerbaijan is more important country than Armenia in terms of Azerbaijan’s energy resources and economic potential. Therefore Azerbaijan’s reactions are being considered by Turkey in the process of rapprochement with Armenia. Energy issue should also be taken in to account in the politics of the Caucasus. Russia wants to continue its domination on the natural gas and opposed the Nabucco project, which would reduce Turkey’s and other European countries’ dependency on Russia. Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan’s support are crucial for the future of the Nabucco project. Therefore Western states should be careful about Russia’s attempt to damage relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan and/or Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Russia may not be very keen for the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations, since Russia wants its military and economic domination continue in Armenia. Democratization would make Armenia closer to the Western states and would also help to normalize its relations with Turkey. A democratic Armenia might also find ways to decrease Russian, “Cold War era type” domination over Armenia and Armenia would follow a multi dimensional foreign policy.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kamer KASIM
