Tuesday, 3 March 2009
The Turkish Position
Turkey is a key player in the Nabucco project, which plans to build a pipeline through Turkish territory. It should be noted that the Nabucco gas pipeline is considered to be a continuation of the existing international Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline and other internal gas pipelines in Turkey.
Turkey is interested in this project because it will bring both economic and political dividends. Along with the proceeds of transit and alternative source of natural gas (it is not a secret that 63% of current imported gas comes from Russia), Turkey will strengthen its position in the negotiation process for membership with the EU. It's no secret that the Nabucco project will provide an alternative to Russian supplies for the EU countries. In addition, it will also promote the development of relations with Azerbaijan and, in the long term, with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. This fact is of great importance, as it will enable Turkey to develop relations with countries in the region and strengthen its own status by acting as the bridge between the region and Europe.
However, in the process of the project, Turkey does not wish to be limited to the role of a transit country. Turkey hopes to buy gas, which would come to Nabucco from the producing countries and then sell its as own to western consumers. This fact has satisfied neither Azerbaijan, nor the European consumers. Azerbaijan wants to sell its own gas directly to Europe, limiting the role of Turkey as a transit country. In this sense, there is a certain percentage of logic, since Azerbaijan is currently selling gas to Turkey at a price several times less than it sold in the international market. In addition, Russia has offered to buy gas from Azerbaijan at the European price. In this case, purely for marketing reasons, to sell gas to Turkey's in disadvantage of Azerbaijan. The position of Turkey is going to change.
Nevertheless, Turkey asked Russia to join the Nabucco project, but the proposal was refused. It should be noted that the proposal came directly from Turkey, since the main reason for the realization of Nabucco is to be an alternative to the Russian supply of gas. However, Turkey’s proposal is not in the interests of the EU, nor is its desire to regulate the flow of natural gas; Russian gas is no exception. Turkey’s attempts to conduct a more independent policy in relation to the realization of the Nabucco project are also seen in some other cases. In particular, it is worth mentioning Prime Minister Erdogan’s sharp reaction during the negotiation process with the EU when Cyprus blocked a number of provisions concerning energy cooperation: he said that in this case Turkey could reconsider its position in the realization of Nabucco. Although Erdogan immediately added that Turkey understands its responsibility to its partners in relation to Nabucco, this statement prompted EU countries to reconsider. The point is that the statement was made while the gas crisis between Russia and Ukraine was in full swing. European consumers for the first time clearly understood that an alternative must be sought not only to suppliers of gas, in this case Russia, but also to a transit country, like Ukraine. In this case, the main alternative is Turkey. However, dramatic performances of leaders could lead Europe to seek alternative routes to Turkey. One such possible alternative is the construction of a pipeline under the Black Sea from Georgia to Bulgaria.
Turkey is also considering the possibility of joining the Russian project, South Stream. According to the official visit of President Abdullah Gul of Turkey to Russia, such a proposal was made. The Turkish side proposed to lay the pipeline not under the Black Sea, but on Turkish territory. In this case, both these alternative projects (Nabucco and South Stream) would take place on Turkey’s territory. This, of course, would increase the importance of Turkey.
The Russian Position
Without any objection, the construction of Nabucco is not in the interests of Russia. It's no secret that after the election of Putin as Russian President, Russia chose the path to re-acquire the status of superpower. However, unlike the USSR, which was a military superpower, modern Russia is planning to become energy power. The basic plan for Russia is to use its privileged position regarding energy reserves to make European states dependent. In this case, Russia is trying to act as not only a supplier but also as monopolist in the transportation of oil and gas from the Caspian Basin in the European direction.
However, with respect to oil, Russia has not fully achieved its goal due to the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, through which Azerbaijani and Kazakh oil have been transported since the end of 2008. In addition, Russia has a lot of companies which produce oil, and creating a state monopoly in this area was not an easy task. Therefore, it focused its attention on natural gas, of which it has the largest deposits, although it also imported gas from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.
In this case, the construction of Nabucco is not included in Russia’s plans, which is why it proposed the South Stream project which, incidentally, will also need gas from Central Asia. In the event that the gas will be sent to Nabucco, perhaps nothing will be left to fill Russia's pipeline. But the main problem might be that Nabucco would be a serious alternative, and would upset Russia’s monopoly on gas transportation. That is why Russia has agreed to increase the price of gas purchased in Central Asia gas. Russia also offered Azerbaijan higher prices for its gas.
In response to the financial crisis, Russia has been confronted with the realization of the South Stream. However, this does not mean that it ceases to repair potential barriers against Nabucco.
The US’ Position
At first glance it might seem that the US is not interested in the realization of Nabucco because gas from this pipeline would not come to the US markets. However, in circumstances where the EU is not able to coordinate its efforts in this project, the United States may come to its aid in the realization of this project. It is thanks to the US, and then-President Clinton who made it a priority, that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline was constructed. It is possible that the US will also play a crucial role in the realization of the Nabucco pipeline.
After the Second World War, the US’ political and economical interventions helped prevent the spread of communism in European countries. Destroyed by the war, they were unable to resist the onslaught of the Soviet Union alone. To date, Russia’s success in becoming an energy superpower is also directly dependent on the United States. The support of the US can make the construction of Nabucco a reality.
Due to recent changes in the US government, it is too early to analyze what kind of steps it will implement. Despite this, it is possible to draw some conclusions. The Democratic Party is currently in power, and it was this party, led by Clinton, that supported the realization of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Today in the Obama administration, the spouse of Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, serves as Secretary of State. In this case, continuity of the Democrats’ policy is not the last to play a role in US policy in relation to the Nabucco pipeline.
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