With the election of Obama as US President, a new era has begun in Turkish-American relations, bringing with it new expectations. Turkey and the US might continue and develop their cooperation in the geographical area from Afghanistan to the Balkans. The two countries have expectations from each other. Turkey’s most important expectation from the US administration is its support against the activities of the Armenian lobby regarding “genocide” allegations, which might put the Turkish-US relations in danger. The Armenian Diaspora has constantly lobbied in the US Congress for the resolution, which supports the Armenian allegations, to be passed. President Obama’s statements expressing his support for the Armenian allegations encouraged the Armenian Diaspora, and they expect him to use the word “genocide” in his speech on 24th of April. US Presidents have not previously used “genocide” in their speeches on this subject, and the Armenian lobby has not managed to get Congress to pass a resolution so far. In the past, the Armenian lobby has been close to having the resolution passed, but the president has intervened. For example, in 2000, President Clinton wrote a letter to the Speaker of the House of Representatives asking for the withdrawal of the Bill, citing the developments in the Middle East and Turkey’s increasing strategic importance. The Armenian lobby’s last attempt to have the resolution passed was on January 30, 2007, but was unsuccessful.
The Armenian lobby will push for the resolution before this April; if successful, this could negatively impact Turkish-US relations, depending on the attitude of the US administration. This situation is extremely important for the future of the Turkish-US relations. If the resolution supporting the Armenian allegations is passed, Turkish-US relations will be badly affected, beyond comparison with the tension created by Johnson’s letter and the US embargo in response to Turkey’s Cyprus operation. It would be very difficult to recover from the resulting damage. The Armenian lobby’s activities are against the US’s national interest. Would President Obama support the resolution despite its possible damage to Turkish-American relations? Obama will be in difficult situation between his statements during the election campaign and real-politic. The US president might choose not to intervene in Congress, and if the resolution passes he might argue that this is Congress’ decision. However, this attitude would not satisfy Turkey since the end result is what matters. Turkey’s expectation from the US president is not for him to be silent regarding the Armenian lobby’s activities, but to stand against any resolution supporting the allegations. In this case, it would be better for the president to prevent Congress from voting. The strategy of former Democratic President Bill Clinton would be an example for current President Obama. Since Obama was elected very comfortably and the Armenian lobby was not a factor in his election, he should be able to do at least what Bill Clinton did. Turkey has a proposal to conduct research about the allegations and has suggested a commission be established. The US administration should oppose the Armenian allegations not just with the arguments of strategic partnership, but with research results and archive documents. Plenty of sources supports the Turkish side are now available.
The Armenian Diaspora’s activities also damage Turkey’s relations with Armenia. The Diaspora radicalized Armenian politics and even prevented civilian initiatives from being developed between Turkey and Armenia. The Armenian government cannot take necessary steps to normalize its relations with Turkey. One of the reasons for this is the Diaspora-based organizations’ pressure on the Armenian government. The normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations will reduce Armenia’s dependency on Russia. However, the Diaspora’s attitude regarding the issues which are obstacles to Turkish-Armenian relations is not helpful for bilateral relations. The US administration should try to cut, or at least reduce, the ties between the Diaspora and Armenia.
The Armenian Diaspora’s activities regarding the allegations are harmful for Turkish-American relations and also harmful for the US national interest, and lobbies in the US may consider their ethnic and/or religious groups’ interest above the US national interest, which also disturbs the US administrations. However, this does not mean that the US administration also does not use the lobbies in order to give messages to some countries.
Turkish-American relations became even more important after the Russian-Georgian conflict in the Caucasus. The tension between Russia and the West, which might also be called the era of “Cold Peace,” required an active strategic partnership between Turkey and the US. In this atmosphere it would be wise for the US administration to implement policies without the influence of the lobbies. It would be impossible to convince the Turkish administration and Turkish people that the Armenian lobby’s strength and persistence resulted in a resolution passed by Congress, should this occur. It is expected that any resolution to which the president is opposed would not pass.
