Alon Ben Meir JTW Columnist printable version send your friend message to author add comment ()

Wednesday, 21 January 2009

Now that Israel has unilaterally declared an end to the hostilities it appears that Hamas, which has been badly crippled, will eventually sign on to the ceasefire. Having achieved its war objectives, Israel must demonstrate that the war was waged against Hamas and not the Palestinian people. The tragic losses of many innocent civilians and the destruction resulting from war must be a catalyst for an irreversible movement toward peace.

Since Hamas is a popular movement and it cannot be eradicated, the best outcome from the Gaza war for Israel and the Palestinians is to induce Hamas to eventually become a political party rather than militant resistance movement. This can come about through continuing pressure from the Arab moderate states, denying Hamas the re-supply of weapons through international efforts, distancing Hamas from Iran by meeting Gaza's financial needs mainly from Arab resources and by contrasting the benefit of moderation to the violent resistance where Israel can play a significant role.

Weakening Hamas will not in and of itself contribute to a lasting Israeli-Palestinian peace because Hamas can overtime recover and continue to undermine the peace process. The only way Israel can marginalize Hamas' long term militancy and alienate ordinary Palestinians from its ideology is by taking immediate and clear measures on the ground to benefit every Palestinian. Having been able to weaken Hamas and render an indirect blow to Iran, Israel must convert its military gains to a political advantage for the moderate Palestinian Authority. Throughout the war in Gaza, the West Bank remained relatively quiet. Although this was certainly due in part to the PA commitment to keep the calm, it is also in large measure due to the West Bank Palestinians' determination not to entangle with the Israelis and lose the economic and security gains they have garnered during the past two years. Nevertheless, no security forces or economic benefits could have kept them quiet had they felt greater sympathy for Hamas. Thousands would have poured into the streets violently protesting the war.

Israel must now fully reward the Palestinians by taking immediate and meaningful measures on the ground to benefit the moderates. Other than several coveted mesures such as a freeze on settlement expansion, release of prisoners, and removal of road blocks, Israel should allow thousands more Palestinians to work in Israel. In addition, the Palestinians need sustainable development projects that involve Israeli civilians to engage them directly and cement neighborly relations. Israel must also work with the international community to alleviate the humanitarian situation for Palestinians in Gaza by providing massive supplies of food and medicine and work out a satisfactory security arrangement to keep the border crossings open. In addition, to signal its humanitarian concerns Israel should facilitate the transfer of hundreds of critically wounded Palestinians for treatment in Israeli medical facilities.

Finally, since the current war on Hamas has politically weakened the Palestinian Authority, Israel and the United States must take extraordinary measures to empower the PA. The United States can offer economic assistance, military hardware, and training to fortify Palestinian governance to ensure its stability and deterrence capability against Hamas. By engaging full force in efforts to prove its long term intentions to the Arab governments, the Arab street, and the international community that has been critical of its military incursion, Israel needs to deem itself a more reliable and credible partner in the peace process.

Past experiences have demonstrated however, that even with good intentions very little progress can be made on the ground as long as violence persists in undermining any sense of security. Consequently, Israel is now seeking a more permanent ceasefire while creating conditions that will inhibit Hamas from rearming itself from Iran and continuing a violent agenda to destabilize the region. The key to a sustainable ceasefire will be preventing the flow of new weapons, especially rockets into Gaza through tunnels across the Egyptian-border. To that end, Israel has successfully negotiated a Memorandum of Understanding with the United States to provide technical assistance to help in tracking new tunnels. This agreement is significant in that it has now engaged Washington directly into the maintenance of the ceasefire. The agreement will also entail the stationing of NATO monitors along the Philadelphi Route to prevent future smuggling of weapons and the construction of new tunnels. In addition, France, Britain and Germany have signaled their readiness to provide naval forces along with the Israelis to intercept delivery of weapons by sea from Iran.

The other important component that will substantially strengthen the peace process is a concerted Arab effort led by Egypt and Saudi Arabia to put pressure on Hamas to accept a unity government with Fatah. As long as the Palestinian house remains divided, it fosters violent rivalry hardly conducive to future stability, let alone an Israeli-Palestinian peace. Both countries seem more determined than ever not to tolerate any longer an Arab Sunni renegade group in the service of Shiite Iran-a country which is aggressively pursuing regional hegemony and threatening not only Israel but also the Arab Sunni states' collective security interests. This explains why the Saudis and Egyptians hardly hid their support of Israel's onslaught on Hamas and why they want to ensure that Hamas, which is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, will not constitute a threat to their regimes in the future. Egypt warned its fellow Arab states at the recent Arab Summit in Kuwait of "using the conflict in Gaza to allow for external forces to intrude on our Arab world." In order to highlight the importance of keeping Iran's influence in the region to a minimum, Saudi Arabia pledged one billion in development aid to Gaza which is likely to be funneled through the PA, which will overpower any contributions by Iran to reduce Hamas' dependence on Tehran. This aid money is also a sign to Israel that it must step up and show its commitment to creating a Palestinian state, or else risk losing future Arab cooperation.

Once the humanitarian crisis is substantially alleviated in Gaza and relative calm prevails, both Saudi Arabia and Egypt must use whatever means at their disposal to persuade Hamas to then accept the Arab Peace Initiative. Hamas, who refused to explicitly recognize Israel before, may now be more disposed to embrace the Initiative which will provide its leaders with a face saving way
out. The United States and its Arab allies must also put direct pressure on Israel to accept the Arab Peace Initiative in which the two-state solution is central.

Saudi Arabia and Egypt have made their positions loud and clear throughout the war and reaffirmed it from the Arab summit in Kuwait about Iran and future peace negotiations with Israel. If Israel does not respond positively and directly to their substantial gestures it cannot expect any future support in dealing with Arab militants and allow Iran to collect the spoils of the Gaza war.

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Alon Ben-Meir is a professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.
alon@alonben-meir.com