Finally we left this famous U.S. presidential elections behind and Barack Obama as the first ever black president of the U.S. won the historic victory. But this was just the first step for president-elect Obama. Everybody knows that as soon as he takes office in January 2009 he will find a series of problematic and major ongoing issues on his desk. Those major problems can briefly be listed as; global economic crisis, ongoing cases of Iraq and Afghanistan, ongoing nuclear cases of Iran and North Korea, global terrorism threat and global climate issues.

The result of this election has created an optimistic atmosphere all around the world. Since the unilateral and confrontational policies of the Bush Administration have damaged the U.S.’ image in the international community, this new president using the “time to change” slogan is seen as a chance for repairing this image. For sure one of the countries sharing this hope is Iran. After three decades of hostility the Iranians in general believe that Obama’s election may help to improve relations. It can be said that the Iranian public opinion and experts are both hopeful and deliberate. They are hopeful about an initiation of relations between two countries and they are deliberate due to their previous experiences both by republican and democrat U.S Presidents. On the other hand there are two main different groups with different views on that issue. The first one defends the idea that newly elected president will be a good chance for recovering the relations; the other one defends the idea that nothing is going to be change.

In general the Iranian experts think that the U.S was in need of a new face to repair its damaged image in the international platform. Some others think that the result of election was a defeat for republicans more than being a victory for Obama. Others say that this new situation will create a more appropriate ground for Iran but at the end the relations between the U.S and Iran is something mutual and the long lasting conflict will not be solved just by Obama’s election. In their opinion Iran also has to take some important decisions and steps for better relations[1]. Another group of experts claim that despite of a democratic president the strategic goals of the U.S. regarding Iran will not change. Because this is not the strategic goals but the strategies that are changing by administrations[2] and the new president will review the unilateral policies of the Bush Administration and try to replace them by fresh policies regarding the Middle East issues. This group estimates that a two track policy will be pursued against Iran: direct negotiations on one hand and special sanctions on the other[3]. Some others defend the idea that Obama’s victory was a life buoy for American people to save themselves from the swamp created by Bush Administration[4].  Another group of experts said that when we are talking about the U.S – Iran relations the effect of U.S presidents should not be exaggerated. And they remind the democrat Carter, republican Reagan and democrat Clinton who had taken strict measures and pursued strict polices against Iran[5]. Some others despite sharing this idea claim that the initial attitude of Obama will be similar to other presidents but he may be in a better position than others to succeed where they have failed[6]. Because the current conditions for a possible recovery in relations, both in Iran and the U.S, are more appropriate than that have ever been since 1979 Islamic Revolution. Another group sees Obama as a bridge between U.S and the world. They think that the majority of democrats in the Congress have a more transparent and determined approach to government policies and by an innovative democrat president the chance for a better foreign policy especially regarding Iran is higher than before. As this group defends the idea that Bush period was an important obstacle against Iran’s ongoing democratic improvement they are optimistic about Obama period which can provide Iran an atmosphere to deal with its political, social and cultural issues without any foreign intervention[7].

Consequently, despite of some hesitations Iran sees Obama’s victory as a triumph over the unpopular policies of U.S President George W. Bush and hopes the new president will be a new chance for both Middle East and Iran – U.S bilateral relations. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s congratulatory letter to president-elect Barack Obama for his victory was a clear gesture of goodwill toward the next president and this attempt gives idea about the positive approach of Iranian side to this new development[8].

Although Obama shares the same goal of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons capacity, his pre-election statements made it clear that he will have a different strategy to achieve this goal. He has declared his intention to initiate the dialogue process without pre- conditions many times. It is well known that the Iranian nuclear crisis is something more than it seems and the conservative policy of Bush Administration was an obstacle against any possible solution. That’s why this new strategy of Obama sounds good and creates some hope for a possible solution. Without any doubt this attempt will be a new stage in that standoff and even if we shall not have too many expectations at first, but initiating the dialogue between two countries which was expected by the international community for a long time, could be an exit from this vicious circle. That may be a gate to this famous “grand bargain” option in which the both sides could put their demands and incentives on the table. It also should be reminded that in this conjuncture, there are important common interest and cooperation fields among two countries. We briefly can list them as the stability and security both in Iraq and Afghanistan, transporting the Persian Gulf oil reserves to the world market through a safe route, preventing the arms race in the Middle East, fighting against Taliban and El-Qaida, modernizing Iranian gas and oil industry. As it can be seen there are too many reasons rather than nuclear crisis to initiate a grand bargain process with Iran. And finally it shall be bear in mind that there is also a presidential election in Iran next year and in the case of the election of a reformist president it will be easier to handle an incipient process of grand bargain.

[1] ‘انتخاب اوباما فضای بهتری برای ایران ایجاد می کند/ بزرگترین نه به جمهوری‌خواهان’, Mehr News, 5 November 2008, http://www.mehrnews.com/fa/newsdetail.aspx?NewsID=777976

[2] ‘اهداف استراتژیک آمریکا تغییر نمی کند/ نیاز واشنگتن به تغییر دکترین پیش دستی به پیشگامی’, Mehr News, 5 November 2008, http://www.mehrnews.com/fa/newsdetail.aspx?NewsID=778014

[3] ‘ايران، محوری‌ترین چالش خارجی رئیس جمهور جدید’, Iranian Diplomacy, 5 November 2008, http://www.irdiplomacy.ir/index.php?Lang=fa&Page=24&TypeId=5&ArticleId=3121&BranchId=18&Action=ArticleBodyView

[4] ‘پیروزی اوباما اقرار ملت آمریکا به شکست سیاست های بوش است’, Mehr News, 5 November 2008, http://www.mehrnews.com/fa/newsdetail.aspx?NewsID=777603

[5] ‘روسای جمهور دموکرات و جمهوری خواه به یک‌اندازه با ایران خصومت دارند’, Mehr News, 5 November 2008, http://www.mehrnews.com/fa/newsdetail.aspx?NewsID=777985

[6] ‘فرصتی نادر برای رییس جئهوری بعدی امریکا’, Ettelaat, 6 November 2008

[7] ‘اوباما رئیس جمهوری تحول خواه’, Kargozaaran, 6 November 2008

[8] Kaveh Afrasiabi, ‘Iran Extends an Early Friendly Hand’, Asia Times, 7 November 2008