Briefly IAEA states that the Agency has been able to continue to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear materials in Iran. IAEA says that Iran has provided the Agency access to declared nuclear materials and provided required reports in that regard[4]. This means that IAEA confirms the peaceful nature of Iranian nuclear program regarding the current declared materials and activities which are under the full control of IAEA and safeguard regime.

But on the other hand IAEA report also adds that however the Agency has not detected the actual use of nuclear material in connection with the alleged studies, it will not be in a position to progress in its verification of the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran, unless Iran provides the Agency more support and takes more transparency measures[5]. The report also indicates that Iran provided a written 117 page presentation responding to the allegations concerning the green salt project but Agency asks for additional information. IAEA makes some specific proposals for addressing the alleged studies[6]. This means that IAEA has not problem with the current activities but still tries to find answers for allegations being submit by some major powers. According to some news; UN nuclear watchdog showed documents and photographs suggesting Iran secretly tried to modify a missile cone to fit a nuclear bomb and Tehran said the findings are forged and no need to answer to each allegation and claim that they faced extraordinary and unacceptable pressure to prove unverified allegations were wrong by revealing information to its national security[7].

Iranian officials highlighted positive points of the report and claimed that the IAEA had verified the peaceful nature of Iranian nuclear program by this report[8]. Iran’s ambassador to IAEA Ali Asghar Soltanieh said that after numerous inspections there was no evidence on diversion of nuclear activities and materials for military objective. Soltanieh also warned that another sanction resolution in response to Iran’s cooperation could endanger Iran’s cooperation with IAEA[9]. Some others in Iran criticized the UN nuclear watchdog for making allegations against Iran’s nuclear program outside the modality plan signed between two sides on August 2007. Kazem Jalili one of the Iranian MP’s criticized the situation and said “If every day some groups or countries that have problems with the Islamic Republic spread rumors about Iran’s activities and the agency requires Iran to respond to these rumors, the dossier will never conclude.[10]” Those who share the same idea in Iran are defending the idea that all the ambiguities regarding the Iranian nuclear program had been solved in the framework of the Modality Plan between IAEA and Iran. So that making new allegations regarding the alleged studies is both counter to this agreement and is not fair.

On the other hand it seems that the IAEA’s report will be used by the US, France and Britain in their push this fall in the Security Council for a new round of sanction against Iran[11]. Major powers of 5+1 group are going to meet on Friday about a fourth round of sanctions against Iran.

European Union Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana said he believes Russia and China are "quite worried" about Iran’s nuclear program and that a report presented by the IAEA nuclear watchdog "isn’t good for Iran." But he added that he didn’t think Moscow and Beijing would completely turn around and support the West’s call for more sanctions.[12] Russia and China have been the stronger supporters of Iran’s civil nuclear program from the beginning.

Currently the main option for the West is a fourth round of sanctions against Iran. But as it requires the Chinese and Russian approval, there are some doubts about the realization of this option. So that may be the sanction resolution will be watered down for convincing the Russia and China. But again when we take in consideration the latest developments after the Russian-Georgian conflict and its impacts on Russia and its relation with the western countries it seems that this will be a new bargaining ground and convincing the Russia for a new sanction will not be that easy this time. That’s why possibly the US and some other western powers could choose an option to apply more restrictions on Iranian companies but not the oil industry or products.

Military action is still an option voiced by Israeli and neo-con US officials. But it can be said that both in Israel and the US, officials and pundits are divided on that issue. The Israeli President Shimon Peres’ declaration of “war should never be an option, or even the first option. We must first try every other option" gives some idea about that division. Peres says that he would not advocate a diplomatic initiative to persuade Iran to give up its nuclear program. Because he thinks that it does not work, but he also says that he would not support a military action either[13]. According to Peres the most sensitive area that could be focused on is Iran’s economy which is a major problem nowadays in Iran. Although both Israel and the US are aware of the fact that a war to be initiated with Iran will have a heavy burden and major effects but they still try to put this option on the table. But it can be said both countries prefer to isolate and weaken the Iran through economic sanctions.

Consequently, after six years of negotiations, inspections, reports and resolutions we are still in a deadlock regarding the Iranian nuclear crisis. But there are some signs of hope in the new future since there are presidential elections both in the US and Iran. May be in the next presidents’ periods fresh policies would be put in circuit. As the current coercive measures did not work so far, may be the next presidents will try more constructive and analytic measures[14]. It seems that this may happen if the Senator Obama wins the elections in the US. Otherwise Senator McCain gives the impression that he will pursue President Bush’s path. Anyway the next few months probably will change the fate of this crisis. Hope the best and wise solution in such a shaky global economy and such a problematic Middle East region.

19 September 2008

International Strategic Research Organization

Middle East Studies Centre