Tension rose between Russia and the West after the Russian invasion of the territory of Georgia reached a point that there were comments about the return of the Cold War era. The President of France Sarkozy warned about the catastrophic consequences if a “new Cold War” broke out. During the Second World War democratic states of the West cooperated with the Soviet Union against the axis of powers. However, after the Red Army entered Eastern Europe to “liberate” the territory, the Soviet administration did not allow freely elected governments to come to the power in Eastern European states. Churchill stated that an iron curtain was descended across the continent. The bipolar world was established and struggle continued between the West and East during the Cold War. With the disintegration of the Soviet Union, countries were freed from the control of Moscow and the new independent states joined the international community. Russia as a successor of the Soviet Union first followed “Atlanticist” foreign policy and distanced itself from the Caucasus and Central Asia. But Russian foreign policy changed at the end of 1992 and finally “Near Abroad” doctrine was declared by Moscow. Russia used every tool to restore its dominance in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Eastern European countries were rescued from the Russian pressure since they integrated with the West. However, situation was different in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Russia used ethnic tensions in the Caucasus to put pressure to the Caucasus countries. Georgia and Azerbaijan was easy targets for Russia. Russia supported the Armenian side in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in order to force Azerbaijan for the membership of CIS. Georgia with diverse minority groups and fragile political and economic structures faced Russian pressure to accept the membership of the CIS and Russian military presence in its territory. Russia supplied arms and training assistance to the Abkhazian units in direct combat. As a result Georgia entered the CIS and Russian troops deployed in the Georgian territory.

The developments after the 11^th of September terrorist attacks have a great impact in the Caucasus. The US military presence in the region increased the US influence and in this aspect, together with Azerbaijan, Georgia became an important state to fight against terrorism.

The stability in Georgia became more important for the US. After the “Rose Revolution” Georgia’s pro-Western administration openly declared Georgia’s aspiration to be a member of NATO, and Georgia was against the Russian military presence in the country. Post-11 September environment turned against Russia. In this atmosphere, post-Cold War rapprochement between Russia and the West started to be deteriorated after the Kosovo’s declaration of independence and the US and some other Western countries’ recognition of Kosovo as an independent state. Together with the US’s Missile Shield project, Russia felt that the US followed containment policy. Russian discomfort increased when the US’s influence reached the Caucasus. The tension between Russia and Georgia further increased due to the Abkhazia and South Ossetia problems. In July 2008 Georgia recalled its ambassador from Russia. The tension reached at the stage of conflict. Saakasvili’s miscalculation of possible Russian response to Georgia’s action caused Russian invasion of Georgia. After the talks between Sarkozy and Medvedev, the six point declaration was signed. However, Russia violated the agreement by recognizing the declaration of independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia seemed to take revenge of Kosovo. The West view this move not as their independence but rather Russian control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia since these two separatist regions are neighbor of Russia, their population are much less than Kosovo and they are very weak in many aspects.

What are the consequences of Russia’s action?    

· The relations between Russia and the West have deteriorated like the Cold War era. Foreign Minister of Britain Miliband visited Ukraine where he made an attempt to establish the widest possible coalition against Russia. The West in general responded harshly for the Russian invasion.

· Russia had an advantage in the short term with its control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. However, Russia’s policy towards Georgia changed the West’s view about the post-Cold War Russia. Russia needs strong economic ties with the West since it tries to fully integrate with the global economy and Russia has little to offer to the global economy apart from commodity exports. On the other hand Europe’s dependency on energy, particularly, natural gas prevents the EU to implement some kind of sanctions to Russia.

· Russia plays a dangerous game since there are territories within the Russian Federation similar to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russian President Medvedev stated that people of Abkhazia and South Ossetia did not want to live under the control of Georgia. In this case one might ask what Russia would do when peoples living under the Russian Federation demand independence, and how Russia would react towards the Chechen question after Russia recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The arguments Russia used in order to support the recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetian would be used against Russia.

· Russia’s strategy in order to overthrow and/or to punish Saakashvili administration weakened opposition groups which were skeptical to the West and supported close relations with Russia. People, who saw that Russia would use military power easily and Russia posed threat to Georgia’s security, would support pro-Western policies. Just like Stalin’s territorial demands from Turkey after the Second World War fastened Turkey’s integration to the Western security system, Russia’s current policy towards the former Soviet Republics made these states closer to the West. Russian administration stated that Russia did not want the new Cold War to be broke out. However, the Russian policy might ignite the new Cold War in different international atmosphere.   

What Should Turkey Do?

· Turkey’s position as a member of NATO and as a candidate of the EU membership affected from the crisis, since Russia became an important trade partner. Russian invasion of Georgia and its policy to have control over Caspian energy resources and particularly its policy to monopolize the natural gas transportation posed threat to Turkey. Russia’s decision to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia violated the six point declaration which was declared after the talks between Medvedev and Sarkozy, and Russian move was also against Turkey’s proposal Caucasian Stability and Cooperation Platform, since Russian decision of recognition made more difficult to be put Russians and Georgians on the same table. In order to protect its national interest Turkey needs to establish even closer ties with the ally states in the region and Turkey’s policy should have the new dimension, which involves proposals and strategies to the problems in the Caucasus. Turkey should be active in the issues like Nagorno-Karabakh problem, the return of Ahiska Turks to Georgia and the transportation of energy resources. Turkey should fasten its efforts to reduce the dependency on Russia in energy field.

· Russian decision to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states will open new discussions and create new scenarios regarding the territorial borders in the region. Medvedev rejected the possibility of Abkhazia’s and South Ossetia’s inclusion with the Russian Federation. However, Abkhazia’s and South Ossetia’s small population, their border with Russia and their economic weakness leads questions regarding their sovereignty Vis a Vis Russia. Most of the countries and particularly Western countries believe that Abkhazia and South Ossetia will be under the Russian control in the future. Russian recognition of Abkhazia’s and South Ossetia’s independence has been interpreted as Russia’s revenge of Kosovo’s independence. These developments have implications on Cyprus question. The two communities in Cyprus have lived separately since 1974 (de facto separation in 1963). The two communities have differences like ethnic, linguistic, religious and cultural etc., and tense relations in the historical process exist in Cyprus.  Although Ahtisaari stated that Kosovo was the unique case and would not be example of other cases in international area, as it is clear that there are many similarities between Kosovo and Cyprus cases and even compare with Kosovo example which has not ready to rule itself yet, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) has all the ability to run the state and the Turkish side proofed this in the last 25 years of its declaration of an independent state. Turkey’s and TRNC’s position became stronger after Kosovo and the new discussion might open after Russian recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. Turkey should consider this new parameter in terms of Cyprus question. Turkey should continue to support territorial integrity of Georgia. But this does not mean that Turkey would leave particularly Abkhazia to Russia. Turkey can make some move to connect Abkhazia in terms of trade and transportation. Scholarship programmes and cultural activities regarding Abkhazia will strengthen Turkey’s role in the region and at least prevent Abkhazia became total control of Russia. Otherwise with its small population and Russian influence Abkhazia would be considered another “region” within Russia. Turkey’s role might prevent this. Turkey’s interest requires preventing Russian influence to widen in the Caucasus.

· Turkey might get advantage from the tension between Russia and the West. Turkey’s EU membership process benefited from the new international atmosphere. There are two different views within the EU regarding Turkey’s EU membership. One group of countries is against Turkey’s membership. Another group of countries is supportive to the Turkey’s EU membership with strategic reasons. The second group of countries thinks that the EU needs to play active role in the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East. The EU should implement policies, which has security dimension, towards these regions in order to be effective global power. The EU with this political vision needs Turkey as a member since Turkey is a regional power in the Caucasus, Black Sea, Middle East and Balkan regions. Turkey’s membership will give the EU global power status and a chance to be effective in the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East.