This New Year holiday in Turkey marked the traditional suspension of the supply of natural gas from Iran. Iran stopped the supply of 5 million cubic meters of gas per day, claiming their action as Turkmenistan stopped gas supplies to Iran, as well as the unusually cold winter, owing to which Iran had to increase the supply of the domestic market. Iran also has reduced the supply of natural gas to Nakhichevan, Azerbaijan enclave separated from the mainland of Azerbaijan by Armenia. For this reason, Azerbaijan daily supplies to Iran 1 million cubic meters of natural gas and then this state transported it to Nakhichevan. In other words, Iran stopped transportation of Azerbaijani gas.

Following Turkey stopped the supply of natural gas from Azerbaijan to Greece, and asked Russia to increase the export from that country and, Russia has gone towards the request of Turkey. But then in Russia it became subject to talk about the supply of additional gas to Turkey carried out by the suspension of its supplies in Kuban, one of the areas in Russia. While authorities have refuted this information, yet it should be taken with some care.

Commenting the existed situation, it will be interesting to consider the positions and roles of all direct or indirect actors.

 
Turkmenistan

The reason of beginning this discussion of the situation form Turkmenistan relates, at least because of the fact that in according to the official versions, this state played a role of detonator in subsequent events. Turkmenistan stopped gas supplies to Iran, claiming their actions, incredibly cold winter. As a result, exports gas has been used for domestic purposes. This motivation action Turkmenistan has a ground, because this state also stopped deliveries to neighboring Tajikistan. Incidentally Uzbekistan also stopped gas supplies to Tajikistan, ultimately led to the energy crisis, putting the country in an extremely difficult situation.

However, this is not the only reason why Turkmenistan led to this policy. Otherwise, the supply of gas shortages could also occur in the Russian direction. Within a few weeks, until the event Turkmenistan and Russia have agreed to increase the tariff on Russia purchased from this country gas. Previously Russia paid $ 100 per thousand cubic meters. After the first of January, the price rose up to 130 dollars. In doing so, in the second half of 2008, once again may be increased to an amount $ 150.

As a result, it is possible that Turkmenistan wants to revise tariffs for gas exported to Iran. At the moment, Iran is importing Turkmen gas at the price of 75 dollars per thousand cubic meters that can not arrange Turkmenistan. It seems that Turkmenistan will seek revision of tariffs with Iran.

It is noteworthy that with the coming to power Berdymuhamedov, Turkmenistan became revise its gas strategy. In particular, Turkmenistan announced that this state plans to hold an international audit of the largest gas fields in the country and Gunorta Iolotan and Osman, for a more precise definition of their stocks.    Till now, the quantity of gas can be judged only on official statements of Turkmenistan. With this step Turkmenistan intends to resolve two tasks at once: to attract foreign investors to develop its fields and prove to the world there was always the possibility diversification gas exports to world markets. So, Turkmenistan already has a long-term contract signed with Russia, China and Iran.

It is also expected a possible export Turkmen gas to the European markets for alternative corridor across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, and through the territory of Georgia and Turkey. For these purposes, the EU is already several years lobbying Nabucco gas pipeline project. For making joining of Turkmenistan in the project, there is a need of TransCaspian pipeline construction.

Strained relations between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan on a number of issues not given the opportunity to begin negotiations on the matter between the countries. Recently, however, relations between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have become established. Turkmenistan reopened its diplomatic representation in Baku. The parties agreed on the repayment of debt of Azerbaijan Turkmenistan created in the early 90 - hour because of the years of import gas. The parties will not be able to agree on the amount of debt. Finally, and the visit is expected Berdymuhamedov in Baku. It is expected that this visit will give a serious impetus to the development of relations between the two countries, including helping create the necessary conditions for the realization of the construction of Trans-Afghan gas pipeline.

To be continued…

rovsen@azerimail.net