27 December 2007 will be remembered as one of the darkest days of Pakistan’s history. Benazir Bhutto who was one of the ex-PMs of this country was assassinated in a bomb attack just before the general elections in 8 January 2008. The place of this unpleasent incident was the same one where Zulfikar Ali Bhutto –Benazir Bhutto’s father- was executed in 1979.

Pakistan, especially after 9/11 has become one of the most important pillars of the Greater Middle East Project. Its position in the region and the radical groups in the country is a matter of concern for the ones who are seeking stability in this geography. Especially, political instability, military regime and the existence of radical groups in the country have become the main subjects about Pakistan. Everybody was seeking for a smooth passage to democracy, which is seen as a key factor for stability in the country.

Bhutto, the leader of Pakistan People’s Party was so decisive on turning back from her exile to Pakistan and she was seen as an important figure that has potent for a smooth passage to democracy in the country. As known, since 1999 military coup Musharraf has the control in Pakistan. It has been more than 8 years and it is still hard to say that military coup brought stability and prosperity to the country. Moreover, two important figures of Pakistani politics –Bhutto and Sharif- were in exile and the pressure on them cannot be defined as democratic. 

This autumn, both Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto announced their intent to turn back to Pakistan for the elections. Nawaz Sharif could not get in the country in his first attempt and turned back. Bhutto’s experience was not an exception and cannot be defined as a warm welcome when she returned to Pakistan in October 2007. On the day of return, more than 150 people died and got injured due to a terrorist attack against Bhutto, but luckily she survived. This attack can be defined as a warning just before 27 December incident or an unsuccessful attempt against the ex-PM.

Bhutto did not turned back in spite of this unwelcoming attitude of various groups and insisted to stay in Pakistan. Her tone even got stronger against Musharraf that she insisted the president should take off his military uniform. She really was successful in this and Musharraf announced that he would take off his uniform and will continue as the President of Pakistan. This was a vital milestone in political life of this country.

Everybody even started to think that something is going to change in the country and elections in 8 January 2008 is a crucial date for this. It is even said that Musharraf’s presidency will gain legitimacy if these elections can be a democratic and a fair one. However, just two weeks before the elections, Bhutto was killed and now not stability, but scenarios of chaos are being discussed.

Violence and terror is gaining ground in Pakistan and the situation gets even more serious. Some 38 people have died in violence that has broken out since Ms Bhutto was assassinated on Thursday.

The officials blamed Al-Qaeda of this attack and said that they have evidence that Al-Qaeda leader Beytullah Mahsud congratulates terrorists after the blast. However, some other options like Musharraf, the US and deep state in Pakistan are on the table with the radical groups in the country.

However, the US and Musharraf do not seem rational suspects for this event. First of all, Musharraf would know and guess that everybody would blame him of such a murder. Moreover, elections could have decrease the pressure on him after taking important steps like taking off his uniform. Thus, it is hard to say that he would take such a risk under these circumstances.

Secondly, for the US, instability in Pakistan means instability in Afghanistan and increasing risks of terror in global terms. As known, Pakistan recently has increased the control in Pakistan-Afghanistan border and also taking measures against radical groups in the country. However, instability means advantageous environment for these radical groups and terrorists and losing control in the border. As a result, attacks against the US army and Alliance Force in Afghanistan can increase and just before the elections it is not something good for the US government. Republicans has lost too many points due to their failure in Iraq and Afghanistan and increasing losses of the US army would mean decreasing support for this party in the elections. Moreover, Pakistan is a country that has nuclear weapons. Instability means loosen control over these weapons and increased risk perceptions in global terms.

Some claim that the US may intervene to the situation via military measures. It is not something regrettable, but not rational. The US has problems in Afghanistan and Iraq. A third country like Pakistan means greater problems. The population of Pakistan is bigger and the structure is much more complicated. Thus, such an intervention might mean committing suicide for the US.

The last two options -deep state and radical groups- seem so probable to blame for Bhutto’s assasination. Firstly, as said before instability is in favor of terrorist groups and radicals due to loosened control over them and they can also manipulate the situation in Afghanistan.

Deep state option comes to my mind due to suspicious attitude of the officials. This attack was not the first one against Bhutto. Pakistani government could have increased the measures to protect Bhutto as a precaution and tried to resolve the October case till now. Moreover, cleaning the criminal scene with water at the same night and the suppression of evidence is something really doubtful. Concrete data coming from the criminal scene could have enlightened some unanswered questions.

Thus, some groups seeing Bhutto as a threat against their interests can be behind this murder. They not only eliminated Bhutto, but also increased the pressure on Musharraf and brought new problems that can even cause civil war in Pakistan.

It seems that democracy has taken a serious damage after the death of Bhutto. Violence and terror is gaining ground in the country. Under these circumstances, political elite, the army and especially Mr. Musharraf should act really delicately while trying to suppress violence in the country. While taking measures they should act really carefully and avoid attempts that would support divisions in the society. This can even cause a civil war in Pakistan. Taking measures should not be for strengthening authoritarian regimes, but for the sake of stability and democracy.

January 8 elections can be postponed. Meanwhile, the stability can be maintained in the country and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) can decide for a leader. Moreover, it is important to change Nawaz Sharif’s decision who said they would boycott the elections. PPP and Sharif’s party should be in the elections for the memory of Bhutto and the sake of Pakistan’s political life.  Unless this would be an election without any alternatives and that only approves previous situation in Pakistan.

Hasan Selim Ozertem

29 December 2007

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