This resignation was interpreted by many experts as a move seen as a victory for hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that could bring about an even tougher stance in ongoing talks. Since Larijani is known as more moderate and also pragmatic than President Ahmadinejad, they often had conflicts over the solution of nuclear standoff and how to negotiate with the international platform. According to many analysts, this discord among Larijani and Ahmadinejad was the main reason of that resignation. It is not clear that this decision was taken under pressure or not, but it is known that Larijani had tried to quit his post repeatedly before. Many analysts agree that his departure will be a great opportunity for Ahmadinejad to dictate his views to the less-experienced successor Saeed Jalili.

Some Analysts say that this new appointment which was also approved by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, remind the recent replacement of Head of IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) and they claim that these developments can be taken as a strong sign of a transformation in country’s nuclear policy: “A transformation from an approach of reconciliation with west to a more strict and confrontational approach”.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said that despite the top negotiator’s resignation Iran's “nuclear policy, strategy and aims are unchangeable.”[1] Iranian government spokesman Gholam Hossein Elham said Larijani had offered to resign several times before. But only now his resignation had been accepted by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad[2]. Elham did not give a specific reason for Larijani’s resignation other than to say he wanted to focus on “other political activities.” Elham added that Larijani has resigned due to personal reasons, but this does not mean changes in policies and programs.

But other politicians in Iran rejected this explanation by saying that an experienced politician like Larijani would not resign from his post and forget his responsibilities in such a critical situation just for personal reasons. According to one of the members of Expediency Council Mohammad Hashemi, the main reason was the deep conflict among Larijani and Ahmadinejad which had been obviously demonstrated itself after the Putin’s recent visit to Iran and his new offer for nuclear standoff[3].

The remaining question here is: why this resignation happened after Putin’s new offer[4]. “Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his trip to Tehran, had a special message for Iranian officials” Ali Larijani told Iran's official IRNA news agency. The mentioned offer would also taken into consideration by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. But later on President Ahmadinejad denied this announcement and said that the Russian President gave messages about closer cooperation between two countries. The ambiguity on that issue shown as the straw that broke the camel’s back between Ahmadinejad and Larijani.

We can say that the most common view refers to the link between the Putin’s offer and Larijani’s resignation. According to those claims, Putin asked the Iranian negotiation team to conduct a more cooperative policy and being in the same line with the IAEA to avoid an escalation and find a solution to crisis. If Larijani would get the route to act in that way, probably there would be a window of compromise with the Western countries. The Iranian politicians in reformist factions have different hypothesis on that issue. One of the strangest hypothesis is, as Ahmadinejad and Larijani are rivals in political platform; Ahmadinejad did not prefer to see that Larijani will gain an important score by solving the nuclear crisis[5]. Other hypothesis claims that Larijani was aware of the fact that it will be more beneficial to accept the offer but he would not be allowed to accept it. That’s why he preferred to leave his responsibility in a point that the nuclear diplomacy is on a good level and he did not want to take the responsibility of any possible failure in that issue that may occur in the future.

“When the President declares that our nuclear programme is a solved question and it is irrevocable, he leaves no room for Mr. Larijani to negotiate”, Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a former Vice-President under the moderate Mohammad Khatami, commented in the pro-reform daily “E’temadi Melli”[6].

Two days after his resignation 183 lawmakers, most of them conservatives, passed a measure praising Larijani's performance as nuclear negotiator, a clear sign of displeasure with his departure. A parliamentary group wrote a letter of complaint to Ahmadinejad for failing to inform them of the resignation in advance or consult with them on Larijani's successor[7].

Former foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati, who served as for more than 15 years and is now senior foreign policy adviser to Ayatollah Khamenei, criticized the replacement of Larijani. “In the very important and sensitive situation where the nuclear issue is at the moment, it would be better if this did not happen, or at least it was prevented,” Velayati said, according to the ISNA news agency[8].

The nuclear policy of Iran had changed strictly after the election of President Ahmadinejad and replacement of Hasan Rowhani by Ali Larijani. But despite his more conservative and strict methods and policy instruments, Larijani was an experienced negotiator and he was against a foreign policy that would create the risk of isolation for Iran. That’s why that many politicians in Iran have already expressed their concern and unease about Larijani's resignation as well as his replacement by an inexperienced successor.

“The difference between Ali Larijani and President Ahmadinejad was on the cost of the nuclear issue,” said a Larijani advisor, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “Ahmadinejad insists on not any inch of compromise.”[9] 

“The Government of Ahmadinejad appears to be losing its initial supporters as it is getting closer to the end of its era and it is unclear with which recognized personality it can work with for the remainder of its time. Larijani had reached a dead end in his cooperation with the president and there was no longer any possibility of cooperation” said Mohammad Reza Bahonar Deputy Speaker of Parliament who is a prominent conservative and Ahmadinejad supporter[10].

There are also other assumptions about Larijani’s resignation which are referring to his future political aims. As we may know he was one of the candidates of 2005 Presidency elections. Some views claim that he resigned of that post to prepare himself for the next presidency elections in 2009 and make a major challenge to Ahmadinejad. Other views claim that he may want to prepare himself for the next parliament elections in 2008. If those assumptions are supposed to be true, it can be logical from Larijani’s perspective to resign at that juncture. It is obvious that the nuclear case is closed for President Ahmadinejad when we look at his explanations. So that, new offers that may refer to even temporary ‘time out’ is out of question for him. But it seems that almost all the submitted solutions and proposals are talking about temporary time out in return of stopping the sanctions or taking the case out of the Security Council. And it seems that Ahmadinejad avoids of any type of time out option. It is well known that Larijani is not also in favour of giving any concession on uranium enrichment, but as a pragmatist negotiator it might be possible for him to accept a temporary time out option in return of noteworthy concessions to be given by western countries. And when he understood that he would not be allowed to use this option for a possible breakthrough he preferred to resign and not being responsible for further critical decisions to be taken in future. On the other hand that was exactly a good period to leave the office, because people will remember his efforts and his success to conduct the negotiations with western countries. So that, this will be an advantage for him in both 2008 Parliament election and 2009 Presidency election. 

May be Larijani resigned for his political activities in future or may be he was getting tired of struggling against the uncompromising agenda of President Ahmadinejad and he did not want to be a part of this conflict anymore. Despite of the disagreements on nuclear policy, Larijani might have some other problems during his post. It is quite clear that being a top negotiator on a critical issue such as nuclear dispute is difficult and overwhelming. For sure Mr. Larijani might have conducted difficult meetings with his western counterparts for convincing them about peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program while President Ahmadinejad had made controversial announcements on Israel and offensive explanations on nuclear issue. Although Larijani is conservative, he is also a pragmatist. Due to that fact while he did support the country’s nuclear rights, he insisted on a diplomatic solution of the issue by compromising with the west. That is why he known to have been upset by anti-Israel rhetoric by Ahmadinejad that seriously damaged Iran's international standing.

Larijani had good ties with Europe's Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana and General Director of IAEA Mohammad El-Baradey. Taking into consideration Larijani's experience and pragmatic outlook, his absence could be a serious curb to Iran's efforts for a successful outcome of its international dispute. We can say that the resignation of Larijani was not a positive and beneficial development for Iran’s nuclear diplomacy. It was the sign of deepening cracks and more disagreements in decision making system of Iran which would not serve Iran’s aim at all. The Iranian leadership might definitely be aware of that fact. That’s why that despite his resignation Larijani had accompanied the new negotiator Jalili in the crucial Rome Meeting with EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana as the representative of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

The decisions regarding the nuclear policy are taken by the highest authority of the country (Velayat- Faqih: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei) and both Ahmadinejad and Larijani are executors. So that this resignation will probably not change the stance on nuclear policy, but for sure Iran’s nuclear diplomacy will face difficulties since there are lots of disagreements among politicians and there is an instable situation in country’s foreign policy. An issue like nuclear crisis needs compromise and pragmatic approach, but currently Iran’s nuclear diplomacy team has lost its pragmatic pawn. On the other hand it can be said that a dual nuclear management will probably not help Iran in its sensitive case with international platform. And it is not a wise move to change the negotiators in such an important case, and currently the last thing that Iran needs is instability in its foreign policy.

Larijani was more experienced than Ahmadinejad, both in terms of holding senior government positions and dealing with Westerners. Since he has been a key figure in attempts for a compromise with the Western countries many analysts assume that his departure could be the start of a major shift in policy. But still it is too early to make a prediction for Iran’s nuclear diplomacy. Despite all the facts mentioned above we have to wait and see the new negotiator’s strategy and ability in crisis management. 

International Strategic Research Organization

Middle East Studies Centre

celalifer@yahoo.com