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													<td><b>
													<font face="Georgia" color="#003366" size="5">Kashagan: Possible Outcomes of the Kazakhstan Government Decisions</font></b></td>
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									<td>
									<font face="Georgia" style="font-size: 12px; font-weight: 700">Rovshan Ibrahimov</font><br><font face="Georgia" style="font-size: 11px">
									Editor of USAK Energy Review</font></td>
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	<font face="Georgia" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 15pt"><b>Wednesday, 17 October 2007</b><br><br><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN-US"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">The government of <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kazakhstan</st1:place></st1:country-region> has suspended work on the largest oil field Kashagan. The present in the Northern part of the <st1:place w:st="on">Caspian Sea</st1:place> and is located in shallow water, the field is the largest found in the last decade oil source. Kashagan reserves are within 38 billion barrels. For the development of Kashagan consortium has been established, headed by the Italian ENI. In addition to the company in a consortium composed of Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobil and Total, this belongs to 18.5% of the shares, ConocoPhillips with 9.3% and 8.3% of ownership of the Japanese Inpex and Kazakhstan KazMunayGaz.<o:p></o:p></font></font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN-US"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN-US"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Earlier, the Kazakh Company was not involved in the development of this major condensate, but as strengthening <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kazakhstan</st1:place></st1:country-region> and increase financial capacity, the government felt it necessary to change this situation. <o:p></o:p></font></font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN-US"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN-US"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">With the development of Kashagan oil companies faced with some difficulties associated with the location of recoverable reserves. Finding Kashagan in the shallow part of the <st1:place w:st="on">Caspian Sea</st1:place> does not allow the use of mobile drilling platform. In addition, this part of the <st1:place w:st="on">Caspian Sea</st1:place> in winter-free, making it difficult to conduct drilling operations. In the investigation which, for the extraction of oil were built artificial island, which is planned for drilling operations. <o:p></o:p></font></font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN-US"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN-US"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Initiation of Kashagan has been repeatedly postponed by the Consortium for a variety of reasons. Recently ENI has again announced postponement of the life of the deposit from 2008 to <st1:metricconverter w:st="on" productid="2010. In">2010. In</st1:metricconverter> addition ENI announced increasing of expenditure on exploration of Kashagan. <o:p></o:p></font></font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN-US"><br /><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">That caused a negative reaction from the government of <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kazakhstan</st1:place></st1:country-region>, which agreed to take immediate action. First, <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kazakhstan</st1:place></st1:country-region> demanded that the consortium to change operator. In addition, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Kazakhstan</st1:country-region></st1:place> sued for environmental damage in the amount of 10 billion dollars. <o:p></o:p></font></font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN-US"><br /><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">But this requirement is not last, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Kazakhstan</st1:country-region></st1:place> calls for increasing share of the public company KazMunayGaz from the current 8.3% to 40%, that is, to directly supervise the work at the Kashagan. <o:p></o:p></font></font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN-US"><br /><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Many analysts note parallels in the actions of the government of <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kazakhstan</st1:place></st1:country-region> to the actions of Russia Far East Sakhalin gas fields. At that time the operator operator Royal Dutch Shell on the field was forced to cede control of the Russian Gazprom. <br />In similarity solutions <st1:country-region w:st="on">Russia</st1:country-region> and <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kazakhstan</st1:place></st1:country-region> are indeed common traits. Do not forget that the two countries formed after the breakup of the <st1:place w:st="on">Soviet Union</st1:place>, which dominated the planned economy. Western companies at the time perceived as a weapon penetration of capitalism. But after the collapse of the <st1:place w:st="on">Soviet Union</st1:place> more countries announced their intention to switch to a market economy. <o:p></o:p></font></font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN-US"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN-US"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</span><st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kazakhstan</st1:place></st1:country-region>, as the country has significant reserves of hydrocarbons, unable to develop their own appeal to help Western oil companies. As more opportunities and strengthen the economy, the country now is to develop the deposit. Not in the last place in the past to be a socialist and thus preserved the tradition of public administration and closed economy. <o:p></o:p></font></font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN-US"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN-US"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Now <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kazakhstan</st1:place></st1:country-region> is in a comfortable position to act freely in the case of Kashagan because of good condition of its economy. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kazakhstan</st1:place></st1:country-region> will no longer need financial flows, and thus has an opportunity to maneuvers freely in their actions. <o:p></o:p></font></font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN-US"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN-US"><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">But there is another reason, which failed to draw in <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kazakhstan</st1:place></st1:country-region> requirements increase its share in the Kashagan. First of all, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Kazakhstan</st1:country-region> is not worried about the fact that the country may face sanctions from <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Italy</st1:place></st1:country-region>. Politically and economically <st1:country-region w:st="on">Italy</st1:country-region> is not so strong as to have the opportunity pressure on the government of <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kazakhstan</st1:place></st1:country-region>. <br />Another reason is indirect dependence Italian projects of Kazakh oil. It should be noted that currently are Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline construction of the Italian and Turkish companies. This pipeline which runs through the whole of <st1:country-region w:st="on">Turkey</st1:country-region> and connects ports on the Black Sea and the <st1:place w:st="on">Mediterranean Sea</st1:place> was planned as an alternative to transporting oil through the Turkish straights. The passages of the tankers are severely restricted that could prevent a large number of transport oil. The solution was to build a Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline. <o:p></o:p></font></font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN-US"><br /><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">However, <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Russia</st1:place></st1:country-region> on the construction of the pipeline Burgaz- Aleksandropolus could seriously disrupt plans for the Italian-Turkish consortium of Russian oil in the Samsun-Ceyhan. So expectations relate primarily in the Kazakh oil. In the investigation which it is likely that ENI will meet many requirements <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Kazakhstan</st1:country-region></st1:place> government. <o:p></o:p></font></font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN-US"><br /><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">Russian and Kazakh experience reviewing contracts can be contagious, especially for <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Azerbaijan</st1:place></st1:country-region>. This country has achieved independence in the energy plan and became a major alternative energy source for Western countries. <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Azerbaijan</st1:place></st1:country-region> today is not limited to the sale of raw materials and develop industrial infrastructure in neighboring countries for the production of finished products and selling it to the world markets. It should be noted that <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Azerbaijan</st1:place></st1:country-region> may wish to exercise its priority in the energy plan of action for their foreign policy goals. So the main challenge for <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Azerbaijan</st1:place></st1:country-region> is the problem of decision-Karabakh problem. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Azerbaijan</st1:country-region></st1:place> can use the oil factor as the pressure on Western countries for a positive solution to the problem. <o:p></o:p></font></font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="COLOR: black; mso-ansi-language: EN-US"><br /><font size="3"><font face="Times New Roman">It should be noted that it is possible and the continued use of <st1:country-region w:st="on">Russia</st1:country-region> and <st1:country-region w:st="on">Kazakhstan</st1:country-region> and soon by <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Azerbaijan</st1:place></st1:country-region>. Its can be also imagined joint actions by these states to achieve own objectives.<o:p></o:p></font></font></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Helvetica">Rovshan Ibrahimov<o:p></o:p></span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><a href="mailto:rovsen@azerimail.net"><font color="#000066">rovsen@azerimail.net</font></a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-ALIGN: justify"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><a href="http://www.turkishweekly.net/energy"><font face="Helvetica" color="#000066">http://www.turkishweekly.net/energy</font></a></span></p></font></div></td>
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