One is tempted to answer that question in the affirmative because for the past few weeks, domestic Turkish politics has been progressing in an annoying way. The standoff between President Ahmet Necdet Sezer and Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan, coupled with the Opposition’s subtle calls for a coup, eclipse the enthusiasm felt by the recent demonstrations and the general election scheduled for July.
As a political regime, democracy is both a blessing and a liability. Democracies are least likely to go to war. In general, they are (mostly) peaceful.
Sometimes, however, public opinion could force decision-makers into avenues that they do not want to go. Leaders could be forced into taking certain decisions which do not suit their countries’ best interests. At other times, however, tails could wag the dogs and governments could legitimate their aims by manipulating the public.
Turkey’s real problems are different than the ones mentioned. Unfortunately, the current bickering among Turkish politicians is distracting people from the vital question of the rise of Russia.
At the end of last April, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he suspended his country’s commitments under the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty. The treaty, which was signed by the then-members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the Warsaw Pact in 1990, stipulated force reductions and put a cap on the quantity of heavy armaments that each signatory could possess. Although this news did not receive much attention among Turkish “sages,” it is extremely important because the CFE has been critical in consolidating an aura of peace and trust between former adversaries in the post-Cold War era.
Russia’s move does not bode well for the uncertain times that lie ahead. Russia is becoming increasingly skeptical of the West for understandable reasons. The U.S. presence in Iraq, the human rights violations in Guantanamo and in the secret prisons around the world make the Kremlin doubtful about the genuineness of Western demands to improve its democratic standards. Russia feels like it is being cornered. Whether or not that is actually the case, that Russia is acting on that assumption could have serious implications for Turkey. If a new Cold War comes about, Turkey may have to choose between its traditional Western allies and its new partners to the East. (Or, it could do the smart thing and stay neutral this time).
Another issue of vital importance that relates to Russia arose earlier this month. Mr. Putin concluded an energy agreement with the Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev and the Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov With this new treaty, Russia will now be the sole supplier of Kazakh and Turkmen natural gas to Europe.
The agreement is not problematic because Russia is establishing a monopoly over the Central Asian energy markets. Russia’s move is perfectly legitimate per the rules of the international economic system. But the Russian overture challenges Turkey because Turkey desires to be an energy corridor in the twenty-first century. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline is an auspicious move in that direction and carries one million barrels of Azeri oil to global markets today. However, the purpose of the BTC project, aside from the stated goal, was also to lay the groundwork to ship Central Asian oil and gas to the world in the near future. Therefore, the Putin-Nazarbayev-Berdimuhammedov entente could weaken Turkey’s prospects as an energy link between the East and the West.
Not only is that new energy deal a defiance of Turkey’s strategic plans, but Russian monopoly over natural gas could also mean higher prices for Turkish consumers. Russia is Turkey’s main supplier of natural gas and as Russia tightens its grip on international supply, it could demand even more exorbitant rates than what it charges at the moment. That could hamper Turkey’s economic development in the near future.
The moral of this essay is that those who are worried about the future of secularism in Turkey or which political party will win the elections should not worry too much. The answers to both questions are obvious: Turkey will remain secular and Mr. Erdoğan’s AKP will win the election in July unless something drastic happens.
One of the primary issues that should trouble Turkish leaders at the moment is Russia’s revival. That is a question of historic repercussions and it certainly deserves the attention that Iraq and the PKK receive. If they spend a little time pondering on what to do with Russia, Turkish leaders would do an immense service to their country.
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Barın Kayaoğlu is a Ph.D. student in history at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville, Virginia and a regular contributor to the Journal of Turkish Weekly.
E-mail: kayaoglu@virginia.edu
