Until the beginning of this year, US had refused to have dialogue with Iran about stabilizing Iraq and solving the current problems. As is remembered the Baker-Hamilton Report has also highlighted the dialogue option as a possible solution to this chaos. They had tried to impose a new approach on their administration by putting the dialogue option with Iran on the table. But the Bush Administration had refused this option and put a precondition to negotiate with Iran. They have said that no negotiation will be done with Iran since they halt their nuclear program. As Iran did not accept this precondition the dialogue process could not be started.

It is also remarkable to remind the divergence and disagreements in regard with dialogue in both countries. On one hand the divergence between US State Department and the Vice President’s Office regarding the engagement with Iran, on the other hand the pro and con ideas in the decision-making system of Iran in this regard.  But the current conditions have changed the scene. Despite their differences on nuclear program, finally after many various opinions, arguments and discussions, both Iran and US have agreed to meet in Baghdad and have ‘limited talks’ on problems in Iraq. This meeting will be held between senior US and Iranian officials in Baghdad.

“Following consultations between Iranian and Iraqi officials, Tehran has agreed to hold negotiations with Washington to relieve pains and suffering of the Iraqi people, support and strengthen the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and stabilize security and peace in that country," said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad-Ali Hosseini, according to the official Islamic Republic News Agency.

“The purpose is to try to make sure that the Iranians play a productive role in Iraq,” said Gordon Johndroe, the White House’s National Security Council spokesman.

Actually the US has faced many challenges in Iraq since the invasion in 2003 and the Bush Administration is under pressure from both the Democratic-controlled Congress and members of its own Republican party. That is why they try to launch the diplomatic channels with Iran to solve the security problems going on in Iraq. Of course the Iraqi leaders’ and some Middle East Arab allies’ persistent demand on US-Iran cooperation in Iraq was a triggering factor too. Middle East countries are so concerned about the sectarian tensions, and all those countries are aware of the influence of Iran on Shiite groups. So that, from their point of view, reducing the sectarian tensions among Shiite and Sunnis depends on a possible US-Iran cooperation in Iraq.

The meeting to be held in Iraq is for sure an important step, but despite the planned talks, mutual suspicion and tension between the two countries runs high. There are still some major imbalances in US’ policies toward Iran that hardening the situation. It will be quite difficult for US to get concrete results from those meetings while applying sanctions and threatening Iran, arresting Iranian officials and trying to mobilizing the Gulf States against Iran. The first thing to be done is creating the proper ground for talks. This can be realized by providing security guarantees to Iran and the famous ‘Grand Bargain’ option shall be vitalized.

Certainly an Iran that does not perceive threats from a superpower will be a more confident partner to make cooperation in regard with solving the security problems in Iraq. Since Iran is one of the biggest countries in the Middle East and has some important strategic cards in hands, US cannot underestimate Iran’s role and support to provide the stabilization in Iraq. And on the other hand, Iran cannot underestimate the economic, strategic and political power of US. Iran is also aware of the fact that cooperation is better than isolation. And despite the disagreements in country’s decision-making system, there is a major consensus on normalizing the relations with US. But definitely Iran does not prefer to experience the same things as in Afghanistan case. In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, Iran has appeared to have a variety of motives to cooperate with US in Afghanistan and it is definite that the engagement with Tehran on this issue provided many significant benefits for US’ war on terror. But despite of this cooperation, Iran was placed in ‘Axis of Evil’ list by President Bush in January 2002. That’s why that the Iranian Government is supposed to be more careful and conducting a better policy for not experiencing the same thing in Iraq case. 

Consequently, we shall not building castles in air by expecting miraculous results from that first meeting. But precisely this attempt can be considered as constructive. There is a long list of problems between US and Iran and solving these problems depends on mutual negotiations. It is not important that the negotiations will be limited to Iraq issue or not, but it is really important that they decided to start from somewhere.

International Strategic Research Organization

Centre of Middle East Studies

celalifer@yahoo.com