The claim that Benedict XVI’s visit to Turkey encompasses a high security risk is based on some misperceptions. The visit leads many experts to make risk analysis, which is something quiet common in the West but is not based on factual data. Some misleading points and prejudices in these risk analyses and the realities may be summarized as follows:

Diplomatic meetings and organizations similar to the Pope’s visit are a routine in Turkey. (Meetings like Habitat, World Economic Forum, NATO Summit, which were participated by tens of heads of states and other visits by numerous presidents and prime ministers.) The Turkish police have sound experience, training, equipment and a well-developed coordination on such kind of a high-level event. In short, the previous examples similar to this one have proven that the police know very well what to do and when to do it. It has a deserved credibility on these issues. However, some Western media institutions have not granted this credit and the resultant confidence to the Turkish police yet.

The concern that the Pope’s speech on September 12, 2006 in Germany would cause him trouble in Turkey is an exaggerated claim in terms of security risks. As a matter of fact, the U.S. President George W. Bush has made a lot more speeches open to misperception by the Muslims and his popularity in Turkey in extremely low. Despite this bad reputation, there haven’t been any security problems during his visit to Turkey.

It is equally misleading to think that the tension would be high in this visit as a result of his being a religious leader having said not-so-positive words on Turkey and the Islamic world. Of course 70 million people are not waiting impatiently to kick him out or attack him. It is true that there are protests participated by 15-20 thousand people, but this is normal. For one thing, the Turks have lived together with the Christians during their one-thousand-year history in Anatolia. 20 million people, most of them Christians, visit Turkey each year. It is not an exception but a routine to see the follower of another religion in Turkey, a country where there are hundreds of churches.

One of the leaders of the Christian Orthodoxy, Patriarch Bartholomeos, the Chief Rabbi Ishak Haleva and other religious leaders enjoy their normal lives in Turkey. There haven’t been any attacks on these religious personalities in Turkey, except the murder of a priest last year. Therefore, the perception that hundreds of thousands of people are waiting the Pope for lynching and the subsequent scenarios of security deficiencies are not based on real data and information.

But one can say that the street protests by tens of thousands may be a factor for security risk. In fact, it may not. First, such protests are quiet useful for they reveal the objectives to be traced by the security forces. Second, these protests are security valves that could diminish tension. And one should never expect the protests to get out of control. Because such protests take place twice a week in Turkey on the average, and there are specially-trained crowd control police in the metropolitan cities to prevent unexpected results. The crowd control police are trained just for this task and they are able to test their training at least once a week. So, one should not expect any security deficiency during the visit.

Despite the discussions above, there may still be some extreme groups with some plans towards the Pope. But Turkey has two significant advantages against these groups and risks. First is the police intelligence agency, which has significantly improved for the last thirty years, has focused on criminal and terror intelligence and works quiet rapidly and effectively. For this purpose, the police first find the possible criminal targets through preemptive intelligence and then detain these people before they act.

One of the most significant examples of this was the police operations that took place before the NATO summit held in Istanbul in June 2004. Extreme leftist DHKP-C terror organization (one of the most notorious terror organization known for their attacks against the officials of the NATO members) militants were apprehended in five different countries, which were Italy, Holland, Germany, Turkey and Belgium after simultaneously well-coordinated operations. These operations were one of the most striking examples of attaining the security and diminishing the risk for VIP safety. There are quiet a number of examples of such operations by the Turkish police that successfully took place with the support of preemptive intelligence.

It is for sure that the police will work exactly in the same way during this visit.

Second, the Turkish society has an awareness that they feel it is their responsibility to inform these extremities to the security forces. When these two advantages are considered together, one cannot mention of more security risks during the Papal visit as compared to the previous visitors.

But any security analyst should keep the golden rule in mind that a 100% security is impossible. It is only possible to talk of minimizing the risk. But one should also keep in mind that the image of the police is determined by not what it captured but by what it failed to capture. And the Turkish police are well aware of this perception. As a result, one can say that the Pope’s visit is less risky than any other remarkable presidential visits that were hosted by Turkey in terms of security. The security personnel need attention, professionalism, and teamwork, but providing the security cannot take the risk of being worried. The Pope is also so aware of this fact that he extends his trip to a rather long time, four days, and to Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir, a triangle far exceeding a length of 1500 km. So, it seems that there are tight security measures taking place to minimize any security risk for the Pope but there is no panic.

Translated by: A. Noyan Ozkaya (ISRO-USAK)