The US policy to contain Iran and Syria and to stop Iran’s nuclear program was to raise the issue of Turkey’s policy towards these countries and particularly towards Iran’s nuclear program. Iran and Syria are being considered among the countries, which are to be ruled by tyranny and dangerous for stability, in the US National Security Strategy document in March 2006. In terms of Iran’ nuclear program, Turkey should be as concerned as the US, since Iran is a neighbor country and a regional power. After Iran gets a nuclear weapon it could not be taken for granted in the Caucasus and Central Asia as well as the Middle East. It did not mean that Iran would threat other states with its nuclear weapon however the existence of the nuclear weapon would be enough for the increase of Iran’s regional influence. Without the fear of retaliation Iran would be more inclined to use its conventional forces in regional disputes or to threat its neighbors. The spread of nuclear weapons means that Turkey will have to reevaluate its defense strategy, which leads to the increase of Turkey’s defense spending. Turkey’s interest requires Iran to be stopped having nuclear weapon. It would also be Turkey’s interest to realize this objective through diplomatic instruments rather than military operation and economic sanctions against Iran. The US can operate a military operation without asking for Turkey’s military or logistic help. However, the US would expect diplomatic support from Turkey in the case of military operation. In terms of possible economic sanctions against Iran, the US would expect full cooperation from Turkey. Both situations are not really desirable for Turkey. The Turkish government stated that Turkey would not support the military operation to the neighboring country. In the case of economic sanctions against Iran, Turkey would loose due to the decrease of trade between Turkey and Iran. In these possibilities the new crisis might emerge between Turkey and the US. In the relations between the two countries, Turkey’s need of the US is more than the US‘s need of Turkey. The US has political and economical instruments, which might be used against Turkey. On the other hand, it is not the US’s interest to alienate Turkey, an ally and a regional power. The cooperation and harmonization of the interests of Turkey and the US would be the benefit of the both countries. While Turkey is against military operation to Iran, Turkey should support all kinds of diplomatic pressure to Iran. In the case of the UN decision for economic sanctions, Turkey should comply with the decision. Being a regional power and a member of the Organization of Islamic Conference Turkey may play an important role in the Greater Middle East project and it can maximize its interest through active engagement in the regional politics.  Turkey should find ways to act with the US in the Middle East and it can also open new channels to manipulate the US policy. There are many different organizations and think tanks in the US and they have different ideas and strategies regarding the US foreign policy. Turkey should engage lobby activities in the US using professionals and academics in international relations and explain its policies and priorities to the US organizations.
The visit of the representatives of Hamas to Turkey was quite early and untimely. It is a fact that Hamas was allowed to run for the election and it won the elections. There might be two reasons for the US to allow Hamas to participate the elections. First, being opposition Hamas was getting stronger, to open ways for Hamas to come to the power and then poor performance of Hamas in the government would make it unpopular and it would loose the next elections. Second scenario is that Hamas in the government would become successful and to stay in the government and to manage the relative economic success Hamas would obey the rules of the international system and engage the negotiations with Israel. Now, first scenario seems to be more realistic for the US administration and the US wants to isolate Hamas through political and economic means. To manage this aim the US expects support as many countries as possible. In this atmosphere visit of Hamas delegation to Turkey was untimely and also unproductive, since Turkey was not able to change the opinion of Hamas regarding the peace process and relations with Israel.

The US policy towards Syria causes concern in Turkey. Any kind of sanctions, isolation, operation etc will destabilize Syria and put in danger the Syrian territorial integrity. Turkey can use its relations with Syria to support Syrian democratization and help Syria to improve its relations with the US. Turkey has more influence on Syria than Iran and Palestine.
Another subject, which will be the topic of controversy between Turkey and the US, is the US desire to put navy presence on the Black Sea.  The US administration considered the Black Sea is the region where there is a security vacuum, which poses danger for regional security. To fill this security vacuum, the US wants NATO force to be stationed on the Black Sea coast. The US has an agreement with Romania for military base on the Black Sea coast. The US will also have military base on the Georgian coast, east side of the Black Sea. Russia has been disturbed by the recent developments in the Black Sea. Turkey does not want Montreux Convention to be changed, which might triggered the other changes regarding Lozan Treaty. There are some mechanisms regarding security of the Black Sea like BlackSeaFor and Black Sea Harmony. However, it seemed that for the US administration these initiatives would not be enough. In fact, NATO power in the Black Sea would be Turkey’s advantage for its position vis a vis Russia and it would also be beneficial for Georgian territorial integrity, which is also important for Turkey, particularly after the operation of Baku-Tbilisi- Ceyhan oil pipeline. Turkey should try to convince the US administration that the security of the Black Sea region can be strengthened with the effective role of Turkey and the other two NATO countries on the Black Sea coastline. If there is a security vacuum in the Black Sea, Turkey has the capacity and will to fulfill the security vacuum. The diplomatic and technical support of the US to Turkey will guarantee the security and stability of the Black Sea region.
The deterioration of the US-Turkish relations would be weakened Turkey’s hand during the EU membership process and it would also negative impact on Turkey’s policy towards other regions. For the US, it would be risky to offend Turkey and damage its relations with the important regional ally. It would damage the long term US interest and the success of the Greater Middle East Project. The US should try to repair its image on the Turkish public through public relations activities. There is no widespread anti-Americanism in Turkey; however there is a level of discontent against the US policy in Iraq and growing hostile feelings against US policy towards the PKK. It is important that the US should use some confidence building measures to improve its relations with Turkey. Turkey and the US should discuss the problems of the relations in close circuit meetings. Any discussion conducted in front of media would turn to the unhealthy right and wrong routine. Both sides should not be forget that they benefited from the close ally relations during the Cold War and after the end of the Cold War also the two countries’ cooperation produced beneficial results for their national interests. The realization of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline was the result of the cooperation between Turkey and the US. The both countries also cooperated in Bosnia and Kosovo. Turkey and the US work also together in the NATO and particularly in Partnership for Peace program, which play an important role for the former Soviet countries’ integration to the West. It should be noted that American image in Turkey could not be restored by blaming Turkish government and media. The US’s support of Turkey in its struggle against terrorism, Cyprus problem and Armenian allegations would improve the relations and American image in Turkey. In this case the current tension would be remembered as a periodic crisis not as a structural one. Turkish-American relations are still in a process of redefinition and there are many issues in which both countries should and could work together. Turkey and the US should also create better mechanisms for consultations to establish healthier relations.      

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kamer KASIM is a IR lecturer, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Department of International Relations & USAK Advisor

E-Mail: kamerkasim@yahoo.com

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