By Arzu Celalifer
Date: 28.02.2006
International Strategic Research Organization (ISRO) that is concentrated on the effects of Iranian developments on the region had interviewed Prof. Ehteshami on Iran’s current situation and asked him for some further estimation. Prof. Anoush Ehteshami is Head of School of Government and International Affairs at University of Durham, United Kingdom.
ISRO: What do you think about the foreign policy strategy of President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad?
Ehteshami: There is a major difference between the approach and policies of Former President Mohammad Khatami and current President Ahmedinejad. Ahmedinejad has renounced the moderate policy pursued during the last presidency period. The foreign policy has gained a national dimension and this is not complied with the conditions and requirements of the region.
ISRO: What do you think about the latest statements of Iran’s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and the Secretary of High Council of National Security Ali Larijani concerning the recent explanations of Mr. Ahmedinejad on Holocaust and Israel? Do you think that these statements would have a constructive role?
Ehteshami: Mr. Ahmedinejad’s explanations had troubled the waters and damage is done. None of the constructive statements could repair this.
ISRO: What kind of impacts will it have on European Union – Iran relations?
Ehteshami: It had already affected the relations negatively. But finally the major determining factor is the result of nuclear crisis. As the Austria will be the EU presidency 6 months later, Iran’s position could get harder. Since the holocaust denial is a serious crime in Austria, after the holocaust explanations of Ahmedinejad, it has taken a counter-suit position. Furthermore, the next months will be tough for Ahmedinejad and his government, because all attentions will be on President of Iran in European side. Any negative and aggressive attempt will affect the relations.
ISRO: What scenarios do you foreseen for Iran’s nuclear crisis? What do you think about the result of Russian proposal?
Ehteshami: Russian proposal seems to be the solution for nuclear crisis. I am still not sure that Iranian side will accept it, but due to the recent positive news concerning the Russia-Iran negotiations, it seems that they will reach consensus. Furthermore the crisis should be terminated under the control of IAEA.
ISRO: What if the Russian proposal will not work?
Ehteshami: If the Russian proposal will fail, The U.S military confrontation is inevitable. But it takes about 6-9 months. At first they will bring the case to UN Security Council and sanction will be adopted. After this period the military confrontation will take place. But everything will be clear on 6th of March.
ISRO: How will Iran react against sanctions and military confrontation do you think?
Ehteshami: There are different agents and different sides in Iran. Of course there is group who wants a confrontation and heading towards a military confrontation. Mr. Ahmedinejad is also among those people who are under the influence of first years of revolution. But there is also a great majority who are against a military confrontation. So that, it is too difficult to predict the reaction of Iran from now. Who knows?
ISRO: Is a direct dialogue between U.S and Iran possible on your opinion?
Ehteshami: The final point is the direct dialogue of U.S and Iran. But it takes time. It will be possible after the Security Council decisions. And of course U.S will not do this alone. U.S will create a dialogue atmosphere in cooperation with other countries. After opening the ways of dialogue, they will have many demands. At the beginning they will ask Iran to cut off its aids to Hamas and Hezbollah, later on U.S will ask her to give the U.S Embassy back. Etc. this will be a long list of demands.
ISRO: The last question is about the Turkey’s position. What do you think about the strategy pursued by Turkey?
Ehteshami: Turkey was silent both in Iraq and Iran cases. It was the best thing to be done I think. Turkey neither prefers a nuclear neighbour nor wants another war in the region. In both cases she will be affected.
ISRO: Thank you very much for your time Professor.
