Iran calls for more nuclear talks, Israel forces U.S for more pressure on Iran, U.S talks about a possible military attack and more sanctions, EU principally supports negotiations but trying to show its teeth as a part of diplomacy and as a shift of duties with U.S it tries to play the bad cop role time to time. But obviously, a possible sanction or military attack will hit the EU’s economic benefits at least for a while. After the revolution it was European countries that have expanded their trade relations in the absence of their rival U.S in this country. According to the recent data of Eurostat the trade volume of EU with Iran had been reached to 20 billion euros in 2004. At the same time this fact does not mean that EU and also European companies who have many investments in Iran will not respect a possible sanction decision by UN Security Council.

Arab countries are silent but most of them think that the peaceful nuclear program is Iran‘s inalienable right. By the time they are afraid of U.S and Israel’s illogic interference as they are tired of instability and problems in their region. Most of the views mentioned in Arab media support Iran’s position. But at the same time they have a consensus concerning finding a solution in favor of the region and expect Iran to continue its cooperative manner.

Russia and China as the close partners of Iran and veto holders of Security Council are in a different position. They do not want to take the risk of loosing their advantageous affairs, by the time they have to be looking like obvious and cooperative with international system. In spite of reminding that Iran shall cooperate with IAEA and complying international law rules, they have declared their negative attitude in relation with sending the file to Security Council.
Currently, this is a game in which Iran holds the best cards: Economic solidity as the owner of huge oil and gas reserves; stable position both in government and society regarding the consensus on the right of peaceful nuclear activities in favor of country; security in region and the most unproblematic relations with its neighbours since revolution; Russian and Chinese friends on the United Nations Security Council and potent foreign policy levers concerning the Iraqi Shiites, Palestinian groups and the Lebanese Hezbollah.

One of the popular questions that has no answer so far is "What sticks should be used?”.  Most people in Europe believe that economic sanctions don’t work. On the other hand, there is a general view which supports that the direct US-Iran talks are necessary. The prevention of an escalating crisis shall be possible by that way. The long relied-upon good cop-bad cop routine leaves the Europeans able to offer only limited security to Iran as long as America remains hostile. Likewise, European incentives are devalued by a lack of American support.

If the main aim and concern of the United States is bringing the stability and democracy to the region, it shall be understood that the proper instrument for this is not an attack or more sanctions. Nothing more than soft policy including decisive talks and mutual cooperations could help the situation. As everybody knows Iran is not Iraq. Iran is an oil rich country that was deprived of many things after revolution and still survives. It is obvious that the sanctions could not serve the mentioned aim and Iran could compensate many things by the oil revenue and tried to be sufficient by its own. At the same time it shall be taken in consideration that it were sanctions which forced Iran to decide for uranium enrichment program and producing the required nuclear fuel for not being independent on other countries. Again it was sanctions and also dangerous foreign intentions concerning the region which forced Iran to develop its technology inside country for not falling behind the world and time.

Therefore, the Russian proposal could be the best solution for the current crisis. It can play a bridge role between EU and Iran negotiations. A middle way solution in favor of both Iran and the West.

But so far; according to the final stage of negotiations, everything is still the same. Western countries and IAEA ask Iran to quit its activities, Iran insists on its peaceful nuclear program. Finally the crucial meeting will be held on 2nd February to decide whether the case should be sent to Security Council or not?

What is important for EU is to maintain the unity on this issue. And it shall be evaluated as a good exam for EU’s foreign policy and its weight in the region. The U.S’s goal is dominance and the Iranian goal is independence. That is the main reason of this irreconcilability.

The nuclear program had became a national idea for the country, and no one, not even high ranking officials, can retreat from the stated position. By the time, Iran is trying to take a dominant position in the region, which the nuclear program is the most suitable instrument for this. But in spite of these facts; there are different points of views in relation with the current foreign policy and the attitude towards the international arena. While there is a noteworthy majority support Iran’s right for peaceful nuclear activities, they also support a logic and balanced policy towards this issue.

According to Mohsen Mirdamadi, Head of National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of 6th Iranian Parliament who was also participated in U.S Embassy occupation in Iran in 1979, Khatami Government was the best period for Iran’s foreign policy after revolution and he managed to create a positive and trustful dialogue with western countries. But today the foreign policy of new government is exactly reverse of the previous one which does not meet the requirements . Aggressive policies will not help Iran and will not serve the aims.

A military attack may have a postponing effect on Iran’s nuclear activities. But generally speaking it will neither have a positive effect in the region nor will bring the democracy and stability for Iran. Today there is a noteworthy part of Iranians do not think parallel with government but there is a general consensus on Iran’s nuclear program. A 2005 survey by the Washington-based Iran Institute for Democracy showed that 53 percent of Iranians favor developing nuclear technology over modernizing oil production. But the “export of the Islamic Revolution” ranked low on their list of priorities. Only 13 percent deemed it the most relevant issue.  On the other hand there are serious dialogues, discussions and attempts in relation with establishing a democratic system in Iran. One of these attempts is preparation to form the democracy side and human rights fraction. Apart of this, too many disputes are going on among the both government and clerics concerning reforms and democratic attempts.

In such an atmosphere how logic is it to impede or slowing down this continuing process by a possible attack or more sanctions instead of supporting it. Sticks will help worsening the situation. It will neither dissolve the regime nor bring the democracy to Iran. On the contrary it will strengthen and legitimizing the current regime, causing many troubles in region and of course affects the world economics negatively. 

So that, the best and more pragmatic solution at this time is the Russian proposal to enrich the uranium in Russian soils in cooperation with Iranian parts.

Although both U.S and EU backs Russian proposal, they are not so hopeful about a green light from Iranian side. But the situation is not that desperate in Iran. Many people, politicians, academicians have consensus upon the approval of this solution. According to these people, Iran shall pursue more cooperative policies and providing confidence is a necessity. Aggressive policies will negatively affect the Iran’s future. So that, this proposal is a safety buoy for the escalating crisis.

By the time, Tehran has said that Moscow’s idea for Iran’s uranium to be enriched on Russian soil offered a basis for compromise in the crisis and the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, has been meeting with Russian and Chinese officials to discuss Moscow’s offer.

Anything which would help resolve the mounting tensions on the Iran issue is always welcome on the European side," a senior official from the Austrian EU presidency said .

Indeed anything helps to solve this confused atmosphere is welcome. Hope Iran to choose the policy on middle road by accepting the Russian proposal and hope U.S trying to find a better way to deal with region’s democratic order.

Arzu Celalifer is a Researcher at Center of Middle East Studies, ISRO/ USAK

celalifer@yahoo.com