* Israel seeks to strengthen its security by withdrawing from
Gaza in return for land. As a result of the withdrawal, the religionist radicals and the secular moderates of the Arab world may come face to face in a conflict.
* Israel leaves behind the legend of “not giving land for any sake” in
Gaza, for the second time after the Sinai Withdrawal. If the withdrawal takes place without any serious problem, an Israeli legend will have taken its place in the history.
* In the aftermath of the withdrawal, internal conflicts between the Israelis and the Palestinians may increase. The absence of the ‘enemy’ will cause the growth of the internal divisions on both sides.
The
Gaza withdrawal is one of the most critical moments in the history of and the
Middle East , because it does not only mean the withdrawal of the Israeli soldiers from parts of the occupied areas. It at the same time means re-construction of the Israeli and the Palestinian identities and reshuffling of the balances in the
Middle East . At the first hand, is a state based on terror. As the Israeli historians also accept, the terrorist and separatist movement against the British imperialism built the way leading to Israeli independency. Many terrorists of this period have achieved important positions (even prime ministry) in Israeli politics. The state constructed with the help of terror has never been able to get rid of violence and has grown many times on the Arab lands by force. According to the Israeli beliefs, Israel was walking on the promised lands and each part of the taken lands was a sign of the realization of the promise. ’s undefeatable legend has become such a religious belief that even the Arabs were close to believe it. For this reason, ’s recapture of the canal region was a real shock for , but was a hope for the Arabs. It is evident that ’s success has been backed up by the American and the European weapons. For instance, in the early years of independence the French weapons have played a great role in strengthening the Israel Army. In the 1973 War (Yom Kippur), the Americans prevented ’s defeat almost at the last moment. In many wars has come so close to the collapse, but at the last moments they have found ways to overcome it. For them these salvations are ‘miraculous’ and ‘divine’. Therefore, each taken land became holy and an important part of the Israeli Jewish identity. Apart from giving back these lands, it is actually a religious duty to add new ones. This understanding became a political movement with the rise of Israeli new right in the 1970s and even came to power with Begin. Begin, in whose cabinet
Sharon also worked as the Minister of Defense, mentioned a ‘greater ’. In short, giving back of the taken lands is such a painful event for the Israelis, because it is not the land or the home that is being given back, but it is giving the lands promised by God to the ‘others’, which means not complying with God’s consent. However, the Israeli politicians have found it better to withdraw from the occupied lands time to time when they saw greater danger if they had stayed. Having taken a step back in the 1956 landing, withdrew from Sinai to disconnect from the Arab world on Israeli issues. Additionally, Tel Aviv withdrew from the
South Lebanon after having stayed for many years, but still this did not prevent it from involving in transboundary attacks when necessary. It should be also noted that the has played an active role in all of ’s withdrawals. The lands occupied by military attacks first used for bargaining in negotiations later in time. still has the control of the
Golan Heights which belong to,
Gaza and the
West Bank (
Palestine). There are a great number of Jewish inhabitants in three of these places and this is one of the elements making the withdrawal harder.
The case resembling most to today’s
Gaza withdrawal is the 1982 Yamit Withdrawal. let the 7.000 Jewish inhabitants to settle for 20 years in Sinai, which was taken from . Especially, almost 3.000 inhabitants in Yamit resisted the withdrawal with violence. The forces under the control of Ariel Sharon managed the withdrawal by using force; the same
Sharon is the prime minister of today.
Why Israel Withdraws?
Israel had withdrawn from Sinai according to the agreement signed with . The provided financial support and consequently, became the first Arab state to recognize . In this way, was disconnected from the Arab world on Israeli issues. The plans associated with the Gaza withdrawal seem the same. First of all, ’s aim is to prevent the Arab world coming together as a whole against . The tendency in politics aiming to improve the relations with
Palestine, after Yaser Arafat’s, still continues today. According to this policy, the relations between the moderates in
Palestine and the other Arab countries and are being tried to be improved. The growing tension between the West and the radical Islamists makes the Israeli policies easier. It will be an important gain for the Arab world on behalf of the moderate seculars when withdraws from
Gaza. considers this is the most suitable time for such an action. If the distinction between seculars-Islamists works and gets allies among the Arabs against groups such as HAMAS its goal will have been achieved.
Moreover, the Gaza Strip is on the Egyptian border and clearly open to any action from . In any case, the Palestinian activists were maintaining the explosives against the Israeli forces from . Playing an important role in the Gaza Withdrawal, guarantees on this issue. Furthermore, is one of the most uncomfortable countries with the growing power of HAMAS and the Islamist Jihad. Being under the pressure of democratizing reforms, is also uncomfortable with the growing religious and religionist tendencies in the country and neighboring Arab countries, including
Palestine. For this reason, it will be Egypt who will try the most to prevent Gaza being the center of Islamism and a threat to Egypt and Palestine. So, will in some way redirect its struggle against HAMAS and similar groups to and Palestinians.
As a second step, it is being tried to strengthen a government recognizing in
Palestine and this will be an important step in the Palestinian conflict, being backed up by the After Arafat’s decease the moderate center powers faced the danger of losing power and this increased the danger of the radicals being the only choice. Under these circumstances, is trying to form an ‘acceptable’
Palestine. Thus, the meaning of withdrawal from
Gaza
is widely open to discussion as the settlements will still exist and the unbalanced power relations between and
Palestine will cause
Palestine to be under threat like the Damocles’ sword. In this way, will seem legally supporting it, while in practice preventing the formation of an independent and strong
Palestine. Lastly, withdrawing from
Gaza will contribute to ’s defense, making it easier for them to defend their country.
Impact of the Withdrawal on Israel
According to the latest polls, it is stated that 60-70% of the Israelis approve the withdrawal, while 30 % disapprove it. However, the problem is how powerful the polarization is; the disapproving ones see the situation as betrayal, even a sin. Thus, the number of people who will resist the withdrawal by using violence is above thousands. Until the time of this article written, the number of the Israelis entering the region for resistance was above 300. The ones resisting the withdrawal are divided into two groups: The religious / religionist Jews claim that the withdrawal means abandoning the Jewish state. Furthermore, there are some Jews who think that the withdrawal means the victory of Islam over Judaism. On the other hand, the secular Israeli Jews claim that this withdrawal will not be the last and this will make an insecure place. For them, has gained nothing with this withdrawal, but for
Sharon this withdrawal will contribute a lot to ’s security.
Of course, the main reason of violence for over 8000 settlers is leaving their houses. Among the ones withdrawing from the region, which was allowed to be settled for long years, there are some coming from Sinai after the withdrawal. According to the regulation passed in the Knesset, 870 million dollar will be paid to the settlers as compensation in the first hand. However, it is thought that the compensation will not be enough to cover the damages. The belongings of the settlers will be carried to according to the plan; even there are 48 cemeteries that will be moved.
Once looked at the long-term effect of the withdrawal on , it is seen that the Israelis are moving away from their legends of being undefeatable and not withdrawing under any circumstances. Such a great identity reformation will for sure be painful for Israel. If the withdrawal continues and the Palestinian problem ends with a solution, ’s hard times will come. From the day of its formation, has been nourished with violence; religious tendencies and religionist radicalism have been encouraged. Up until now, the elements of violence and extremism in society were being practiced on
Palestine. Any small change in the Palestinian problem had an effect of strong violence on the Israelis. The radical Jews even killed their own prime minister and their present prime minister can not sleep without his gun, always carrying the fear of death. Each step taken on the path of solution to the Palestinian problem will increase the violence and extremism in . It can be easily predicted that the groups, fed by blood and hatred for long years, will this time turn into domestic violence.
The Impact on
Palestine
The withdrawal will for sure increase the respect for the Palestinian Authority and will provide the ground for any kind of reforms and will ease the continuity of the negotiations with . However, the Palestinians’ fear is that the
Gaza withdrawal will not be real; even if it is, withdrawal will not continue by other withdrawals from the occupied territories. What the Palestinians want the most is bringing back the Palestinian refugees, especially those in . does not let the hundreds thousands of refugees return at once. Furthermore, despite the ’s promise to the Palestinians, the Sharon Government clearly states that they will not take a step back from
East Jerusalem and the
West Bank . One another group contented with the withdrawal in
Palestine is HAMAS. Saying that the withdrawal is a direct result of the HAMAS militants’ attacks against , HAMAS claims that the only tool for is violence, and the
Gaza withdrawal proved it. Therefore, if the Palestinian Authority can not take new steps after the withdrawal or if Israel slows down the withdrawal and prevents the success of the Palestinian moderates, HAMAS or similar acts will take their place. For the time being, HAMAS accepted the will of the Palestinian Authority not to involve in violence during the withdrawal. Yet, it did not accept the will of not involving in militarist celebrations. This clearly shows that HAMAS is decisive not to give the gains of the withdrawal to Al Fetih.
One another problem will emerge when the lands of the Jewish settlers will be distributed. In the case of people close to Fetih, wanting to take the biggest share of the ‘cake’, degeneration and domestic conflicts are likely to increase. So the Palestinians’ domestic peace can be damaged as withdraws.
***
Thousands of the 8.500 settlers in
Gaza evacuated the region willingly. It is expected that the many more will also withdraw from the region willingly and quietly. It is doubtful how the small but radical groups will use violence. It should not be surprising for us however high the violence wave gets, because the
Gaza withdrawal is like a bloody operation for both and
Palestine. It will be painful. The important thing here is the formation of the identities and the futures of both nations. What should not be forgotten is that the aftermath of the operation requires to be given greater importance than the operation itself. If the necessary measures are not taken after the withdrawal, it may bring further serious security and social problems for both and
Palestine.
Trn. by Ozge Taylan, ISRO
17 August 2005
