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Winning Turkey: How America, Europe, and Turkey Can Revive a Fading Partnership |
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reviewed by Ceren Mutus |
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Author: Omer Taspinar & Philip H. Gordon |
ISBN:
978-0815732150 |
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Publisher:
Brookings Institution Press |
Page:
115 |
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Type:
Paperback |
Price:
$ 18.95 |
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Place of Publication:
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Published in:
2008 |
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Review: |
Turkey-West relations, which can be traced back to the Ottoman period, gained a new impetus after the establishment of the Turkish Republic in 1923. The new Republic turned its face to the West, which it approached as the source of civilization, democratization and modernization. Yet, Turkey's becoming a key partner for the West in the exact sense corresponds to the emergence of the Cold War. In this context, Turkey, which was determined to be a part of the West attended to Western allies in the Korean War, became one of the first admitted countries to the NATO and applied for EU membership in 1959.
In their recent book, 'Winning Turkey: How America, Europe, and Turkey Can Revive a Fading Partnership', Omer Taspinar and Philip Gordon analyze the current state of Turkey's relations with the US and the EU and present a constructive plan to restore fading partnership between the parties.
During the Cold War, the Soviet Union and communism were recognized as a common threat for the West and Turkey. Eventually, until the 1990s, Turkey's strategic importance led the relations to reach its peak. However, with the removal of the Soviet threat, there occurred a dramatic shift in the balances of world politics. Turkey and the US, who lost their enemy in the common denominator, began to encounter each other in the region. On the other hand, with the end of the Cold War and the abolishment of right-left division in the strict sense, identity problems based on ethnicity and religion resurfaced in Turkey. In this context, Turkey mostly linked the Kurdish problem, secular-religious division and civil-military tensions to the West. Furthermore, the 9/11 attacks, the US's interference in the region and the EU's negative attempts to obscure Turkey's membership bids affected relations with the West negatively. Recent public surveys on Turkish people's approach to the West raise concerns about the future of relations. According to the figures dated 2008, only 12% percent of the Turkish people perceive the US as a 'trustable partner'. Besides, the majority of Turkish people have lost their hopes towards the EU membership compared to the beginning of the accession negotiations in 2005.
The volume consists of six sections which deal with different dimensions of Turkish foreign policy. In the first section, the authors envisage the 'worst and most radical' scenario for future relations in which a military coup against democratically elected government happens in Turkey, resulting in withdrawal of the EU membership application, termination of military cooperation with the US in the Middle East and establishment of close diplomatic, economic and energy relations with Russia, China and Iran.
Taking into consideration the above mentioned risks, authors present a realistic plan to survive the fading relations between the West and Turkey. They mainly focus their suggestions on 5 points:
1)Fostering a 'grand bargain' between Turkey and Kurds,
2)Western support of the advancement of liberalism and democracy in Turkey,
3)Renewed commitment to promote Turkey's full EU membership,
4)Promotion of historic compromise between Armenia and Turkey,
5)Support for political settlement in Cyprus and more profound dialogue between the West and Turkish Cypriots.
In the second section, Turkey's internal political tensions since the 1920s, shaped around the struggle between Kemalists and Islamists and its influences on the relations with West, are settled. The authors construct the Kemalist ideology on three pillars, namely, radical laicism, assimilationist nationalism and Ataturk's determination to align Turkey with modernized West. However, it is argued that the ideology couldn't have efficiently addressed the majority of Turkish people in time and reforms have been undertaken as a consequence of this top-down process. Secondly, the authors create a link between global dynamics and domestic transformations. In this context, they assert that the resurgence of ethnic and religious identities with the end of the Cold War and the Turkish governments' and army's lack of capability to cope with them served to marginalize radical groups.
The third section provides a general background of Turkey-US relations after the end of the Cold War. According to the authors although the relations were expected to be disrupted after losing the common enemy in 1990s, on the contrary, they were improved due to some conjectural developments such as the eruption of the Gulf War, the Clinton administration's support for Turkey's IMF debt guarantees, Turkey's increasing role in transporting Caspian oil and gas to the West, the US's strong support for Turkey's EU membership and finally the capture of PKK leader Ocalan in cooperation with the US.
The authors focus on the eruption of Iraq War in 2003 as the main breaking point for Turkey's fading relations with the US. As is known, Turkey, refraining from the establishment of an independent Kurdish state in Northern Iraq, opposed the US's interference in the region and ironically took place beside the European states such as Germany and France who are well known for their objections towards Turkey's EU membership. Moreover, Turkish soldiers' captivity with bags over their heads widened the crisis of confidence between two allies. It can even be said that Turkey-US relations began to experience one of the worst periods of its history.
In the fourth section, the development process of Turkey-EU relations is examined within the context of the chain of events since 1959. The authors draw attention to the developing relations until 2005 due to both international and domestic dynamics. While the US's support for Turkey's EU membership, the change of government in Germany under the leadership of the Greens and the healing of Turkey-Greece relations are counted as positive international developments, speeding up the reform process in Turkey with the AKP government is assessed as domestic impetus in favor of initiation of accession negotiations with Turkey. However, the authors argue that the 2004 enlargement, Merkel's and Sarkozy's coming to power in 2005 and 2007 and rejection of the Annan Plan by Greek Cypriots, which was perceived as the most rational solution for the Cyprus problem, constituted the main reasons behind fading relations with Europe.
The authors, taking into consideration the abovementioned changes in approaches among parties, underline that Turkey has begun to distance itself from the West. They discuss new alternative partnerships with Russia, Iran and Syria and draw two possible scenarios regarding the consequences of Turkey's new regional activism. The first one is the continuation of the current situation. The AKP government, on the one hand, preserves its close alliance with the US and conducts the EU accession process in realistic terms; on the other hand it improves its relations with the other regional actors. According to the authors this scenario does not prevent tensions with West but also does not result in the West 'losing' Turkey. The authors build the second scenario on a probable military coup against the AKP government. They argue that in this case, Turkey's links with the West may be seriously damaged and Turkey may lean towards an isolationist and authoritarian regime. In light of these scenarios, the book supports that since Turkey is an indispensable partner for the West in the region, concrete suggestions are required to revitalize the relations.
Among the authors' suggestions, there are some striking points to be mentioned. Regarding the 'grand bargain' between Turkey and Kurds, the authors state that the US should continue to improve close links with Iraqi Kurds and promote their goal of establishing an autonomous Kurdish region within the boundaries of Iraq. Besides, the US should clearly emphasize that attempts of formal independence, territorial claims and tolerance of terror would cost the Kurds any US support. In my opinion, this option does not fully meet the interests of all sides. The decision on the establishment of an autonomous or independent Kurdish state in Northern Iraq cannot only be left to the US and Kurds. In any case, Turkey must be included in the shaping of the region.
Regarding the support for the advancement of democracy in Turkey, the authors assert that the abolition of Article 301 of the Turkish Penal Code would not only make Turkey a free country but also increase the dignity of Turkey in the eyes of the West. At this point, I have some objections. As is known, in 2008 Turkey amended the article partially and mostly aligned it with the correspondent measures in the European law systems. To annul the article in whole would go beyond the aimed objective. The article should be preserved as long as it involves concrete elements of crime.
In short, 'Winning Turkey: How America, Europe, and Turkey Can Revive a Fading Partnership', is a well written book in terms of presenting the background analysis of fading relations with the West after the end of the Cold War. Authors successfully settle the current state of relations and put forward a realistic plan for Ankara, Washington and Brussels to overcome the mentioned risks. Since it involves many actors, the reader finds the chance to assess different perspectives on the same topic. However, as mentioned in the above paragraphs, at some points in reaching solutions, the authors fail to take into account Turkey's special circumstances and growing prestige in its proximate region. As the authors have concluded correctly, in recent years Turkey has increased its self-confidence and bargaining power in international relations. For these reasons, regarding issues which have direct or indirect influences on its interests, Turkey must be one of the main actors in shaping strategies.
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about book: |
Turkey has always been a crossroads: the point where East meets West, Europe meets Asia, and Christianity meets Islam. Turkey has also been a close and important American ally, but a series of converging political and strategic factors have now endangered its longstanding Western and democratic orientation. In "Winning Turkey", two leading analysts explain this worrisome situation and present a plan for improving it. The stakes are clear. Turkey is the most advanced democracy in the Islamic world, bordering a number of the world's hotspots, including Iraq, Iran, and the Caucasus. It occupies the corridor between Western markets and Caspian Sea energy reserves.A stable, Western-oriented Turkey moving toward EU membership would provide a growing market for exports, a source of needed labor, a positive influence on the Middle East, and an ally in the war on terror. The picture has darkened, however, as rising anti-Americanism, deflated hopes for EU accession, civil-military tensions, and terrorist threats have destabilized an already volatile Turkish political system. "Winning Turkey" designs a plan to ease tensions in this critical part of the world. In addition to proposing a 'grand bargain' between Turkey and the Kurds, it advocates greater support for increased liberalism and democracy, a renewed commitment by both Europe and Turkey to promote EU membership, a historic compromise with Armenia, and greater Western engagement with Turkish Cypriots.
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