Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kamer KASIM printable version send your friend

Abstract

Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) was founded in 1983. TRNC was only recognized by Turkey as an independent state and TRNC exists under isolation. Despite its lack of recognition, the TRNC has all the elements of a state. The establishment of the TRNC happened after the failure of the solution of the Cyprus problem which changed its face after the EU membership process of the Southern Cyprus of Greek Administration (SCGA) as “The Republic of Cyprus”. With the efforts of the EU and the UN, the Annan Plan was introduced and referendum was held on 24^th of April 2004 in North and South of Cyprus to solve the problem before the EU membership. While in the North 64.9 % of participants voted yes to the plan, in the South 75.8 % voted no. Since one side rejected the Annan Plan, the Cyprus problem was not solved before the SCGA’s entry to the EU. Despite this result, isolation of the TRNC continued and promises were made to the north during the referendum process were not fulfilled. In this picture, the Central Asian states together with the Caucasian republics might provide the ways to break the isolation of the TRNC. The establishment of the economic and strategic ties particularly with the Turkic republics of the region will create fruitful atmosphere between these states and the TRNC. 

In this paper I will evaluate instruments and ways of cooperation between the Central Asian states and TRNC. I will also analyze the possible implications and reactions of this cooperation. Besides the models of cooperation between the Central Asian states and the TRNC, the changing atmosphere of the global politics after the independence of Kosovo and Central Asian states’ attitude regarding the Kosovo case will be dealt with. It might be argued that there are many similarities between Kosovo and Cyprus cases and even compare with Kosovo example which has not ready to rule itself yet, the TRNC has all the ability to run the state and the Turkish side proofed this in last 25 years of its declaration of an independent state.   

Cyprus Question in the Changing International Atmosphere

In 1960, the Cyprus Republic was established with the international agreements signed by the Turkish and Greek Cypriots as well as Turkey, Greece and the United Kingdom. This state was a result of compromise between Greek policy of Enosis (island’s unification with Greece) and Turkish policy of partition of the island. However, the partnership state adventure did not work and separation of the two communities of Cyprus started in 1963. The Greek Cypriots denied the constitutional rights of the Turkish Cypriots and terrorized the Turks in Cyprus. As a result, the state which was established in 1960 collapsed. The final blow to the state came with the coup supported by Greece to annex the Cyprus in 1974. As a result Turkey used its right to intervene accordance with the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee. The two communities separated and Turkish Cypriots first established Turkish Federal State of Cyprus and in 1983 the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) was founded. The two communities in the island have lived separately in their own states since 1974 (de facto separated since 1963).[i]

The developments in the Cyprus question impacted from International environment. During the Cold War era, the main concern of the West was to prevent conflict between Turkey and Greece due to the Cyprus problem. Disintegration of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War was the first important change in the international atmosphere, which also affected the Cyprus question. One important development was that the new states joined the international community. Among these states there are the ones that Turkic origin and rich in energy resources might have different look to the Cyprus problem. For the Northern Cyprus, there are new states, which were unreachable during the Cold War, to establish contacts. Second important development was that the strategic parameters and perceptions of threats changed for many states.  The end of the Soviet threat for Europe, particularly, led to the adjustments of many European states’ foreign policy. The security arrangements of the Cold War era were questioned and the process of Eastern European countries’ integration to the European Union (EU) started and also Southern Cyprus of Greek Administration (SCGA) applied for the EU membership in 1990. In 1993, the EU Commission gave positive response to the Greek Cypriot application for the membership of the EU as “the Cyprus Republic”. In the new international environment the SCGA’s membership process to the EU as “The Cyprus Republic” continued and finally the SCGA became a member of the EU. The EU’s decision to implement the SCGA’s membership process faced objection from the Turkish side. The Turkish side argued that the membership against Treaty of Guarantee, which forbids Cyprus to participate in whole or in part, in any political and economic union. The membership of the EU is also problematic for the Constitution of 1960. Despite the fact that the EU disregarded the Turkish side’s objection, the EU acted to solve the Cyprus question before the membership of the SCGA.  Since the EU states knew the fact that the membership was problematic before the solution to the Cyprus question to be found.

International atmosphere in the post-Cold War era was changed and we faced different stages regarding stability and security, which influence countries’ foreign policies. One important stage was 11^th of September 2001 terrorist attacks to the United States. Many states came together under the concept of fighting against terrorism. The US had military presence in the Caucasus and Central Asia and in 2003 Iraq became under the control of the US. All these developments occurred the regions where as a regional power Turkey is an important player, particularly, in terms of security and stability. This international environment changed the EU’s view particularly regarding the Turkey’s membership issue. The Cyprus question became a problem for the EU since the membership of the SCGA as “the Cyprus Republic” before the solution of the Cyprus problem meant that the EU rules and regulations would be valid only one part of the island. Cyprus question also complicated Turkey’s relations with the EU. The EU acted to solve the Cyprus question before the membership of the SCGA. With the efforts of the EU and the UN, the Annan Plan was introduced and referendum was held in 24^th of April 2004 in North and South of Cyprus. While in the North 64.9 % of participants voted yes to the plan, in the South 75.8 % voted no. Since one side rejected the Annan Plan the Cyprus problem was not solved before the SCGA’s entry to the EU. Thus the situation emerged which is very problematic to the EU. Turkish side’s objection regarding the membership of the SCGA as “Cyprus” was not taken into account by the EU. Despite the Yes votes to the Annan Plan from the North, the isolations faced the TRNC continued.[ii] Then TRNC followed the policy to break its isolation. Countries outside Europe were particular target in this policy. In 2005 the two planes of Azerbaijan landed in Ercan Airport and cooperation protocols were signed during the visit. It was an important step that after 31 years other than planes from Turkey landed in Northern Cyprus.[iii] The important developments regarding the attempts of the TRNC to break the isolation came in 2007. Ferry transportation started between TRNC and Syria and Turkish Cypriots entered Syria with TRNC Passports. TRNC citizens travelled from Gazimagosa to Lazkiye despite the protest of the SCGA.[iv] In the same year TRNC Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Turgay Avci attended the coordination meeting of Foreign Ministers of Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC), which was held in New York. Turgay Avci met with the delegation headed by Riaz Khan, Deputy Foreign Minister of Pakistan.[v] Before this meeting TRNC also joined OIC 34^th Foreign Ministers meeting held in Islamabad in 14-15 May 2007.

Another important stage in the post-Cold War environment came with the independence of Kosovo, which triggered developments effecting the Cyprus question. The recognition of Kosovo’s independence by the US and some Western countries created a big rift between Russia and the West. The Former Russian President even stated that if countries recognized the Kosovo’s independence why they did not recognize the Northern Cyprus. Kosovo’s independence impact on the Cyprus question became rather obvious with the developments in the Caucasus in August 2008. Russia invaded territory of Georgia and it recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. These developments together with the independence of Ossetia changed the parameters of the Cyprus question. Before we deal with the actual impact on the Cyprus question, we discussed the ways that TRNC might break its isolation. TRNC’s possible ties with the Central Asian republics will help TRNC to lighten its isolation. First, we will discuss the ways to establish ties between TRNC and Central Asian republics and possible strategic implications of this. Then how the new international environment will effect on the Cyprus question will be dealt with in the context of the stages in the Cyprus question.

Northern Cyprus and Central Asia

The collapse of the Soviet Union created the new international environment. The new states in the Caucasus and Central Asia became independent. They have rich energy resources, however, the land locked states needed transportation corridors to reach international markets. Competition for the energy resources of the region produced alternative roads for the transportation of oil and natural gas to the international area. Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline was chosen for the transportation of Azerbaijan’s oil. There is a plan to make Ceyhan port to the center for oil stock exchange.[vi] This new oil terminal is 70 km away from the TRNC, which increased the TRNC strategic importance. TRNC might use post-Annan Plan atmosphere to improve its ties with geography that outside Europe. TRNC would have used its strategic location to reach out Central Asia.  Cultural relations might be the important step for TRNC’s connection with Central Asia. Cooperation among the universities of TRNC and Central Asian states will also open new channel for the future relations. Scholarship programs and exchange programs for students and academics will help improve relations. Private sector in Central Asian republics are developing and particularly multinational companies work in these republics might be encouraged to invest in the TRNC. Firms from Turkey have investments in Central Asia can play coordinator and/or informative role regarding the encouragement of investments in TRNC. Turkey has investments worth more than 4 billion US Dollars in the region. Turkish contractors have projects valued 15 billion US Dollars. Total number of the Turkish firms operating in the region reached 1000.[vii]

Another area for cooperation might establish between the think tank organizations. Think Tanks are founded to produce strategies in diverse fields from politics, economy to culture. Thinks tanks in TRNC and Central Asian states might implement common projects. Tourism might also be an area, which strengthens the TRNC ties with Central Asia. One obstacle for this is that direct flight ban to the north of Cyprus and passengers have to travel to the TRNC via Turkey. Travel agencies in Turkey can organize these trips. Opening of trade offices in the region would be important in order to increase the trade. Tourism representatives of the TRNC should be extended all over Central Asia. Cultural and educational activities would be important tool in the relations between TRNC and Central Asia. Common master and Ph.D. programs and conferences about the topics of common interest would be crucial in the opening of the road of recognition.

The visits of parliamentarians from the region to the TRNC and all kinds of official contacts would be important in this context. TRNC relations with the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) in which Central Asian states also members would be another field for improving ties. The OIC referred to northern Cyprus as Turkish Cypriot State and more importantly, TRNC has been participated in OIC meetings and TRNC also hosted a visit by OIC officials headed by OIC Secretary General Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu in February 2007.[viii] As member of 57 states, the OIC is the second largest inter-governmental organization after the United Nations. The OIC has members from four continents.[ix] TRNC’s observer status in the organization as Turkish Cypriot State became important after the enlargement of the organization with the new members and particularly with the membership of the Central Asian republics. Turkish Cypriot State delegation joined the OIC meetings with their titles. For example, nine representatives from TRNC attended 34^th Foreign Ministers meeting of OIC in Islamabad in 14-15 May 2007. Among them were Turgay Avci; Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kenan Basaran; Private Secretary of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and all delegation represented and written in the official site of the OIC as their official titles.[x] It is important to note that OIC meetings ended with the declaration which supports the end of the isolation of the Turkish Cyprus. For example in the 34^th and 35^th meetings of OIC Foreign Ministers meetings both in the declarations and resolutions, the OIC appeal the international community, including the OIC Member States to take concrete steps in order to put an end to the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots.[xi]

The field of sport and cooperation between teams of TRNC and the teams of Central Asian republics is another point which strengthens ties between TRNC and Central Asia. Küçük Kaymakli football team’s visit to Kyrgyzstan in 2008 was important to get over the sport embargo. As Küçük Kaymakli played the two matches in Kyrgyzstan; one with Abdish Ata 91, which is young team of Abdish Ata.  Küçük Kaymakli won 3-0; the other game was with Abdish Ata main team.  Küçük Kaymakli lost the game 3-1.  The delegation of Küçük Kaymakli football club had also talks with the Chairman of Kyrgyzstan Parliament Sport Committee and Kyrgyzstan Sport Minister (There were also matches with football and basketball teams of Kyrgyzstan in 2006).[xii]

In terms of TRNC’s ties with Central Asian republics there are differences among the states. The degree of Turkey’s relations with the each republic and the effort of TRNC’s representatives of these states played role in the closeness of relations. Among the Caucasus and Central Asian states, Azerbaijan has special place in terms of ties. TRNC’s ties with Kyrgyzstan are also developing. Delegations from these states visited TRNC.[xiii] This shows that representative offices in more countries would help to improve TRNC’s relations and acceptance of TRNC in different geographies. Changes in international atmosphere and development of Turkey’s relations with the Central Asian republics will help to improve TRNC’s relations with Central Asian republics. Turkey’s relatively problematic relations with Uzbekistan have reflections on Uzbekistan’s ties with TRNC.

Possible Strategic Implications of Relations among TRNC and Central Asian States: Projections in the new International Environment

Post-Cold War international atmosphere developed in a way that new independent states joined the international community. Besides the independence of the former Soviet Republics, disintegration of Yugoslavia created new states. In recent years, Montenegro became independent in 2006 and Kosovo also became independent in February 2008. Among the new independent states, particularly, Kosovo’s independence caused discussion about the situation of northern Cyprus, since the similarities of both cases opened the question of what would happen if the Cyprus question could not be solved and the possibility of the TRNC’s recognition in the international area. In his statement, former Russian President Putin indicated the contradictions that some countries recognized Kosovo but the same countries did not recognize TRNC. In fact there are many similarities between Kosovo and northern Cyprus.

Despite its lack of recognition the TRNC has all the elements of a state certainly more than Kosovo has. The SCGA has no authority in the north and TRNC has its own government, territory and a permanent population. Besides accepting the Annan plan Turks in Cyprus showed their will for the solution. The Greek side of the dispute, however, rejected the plan. In terms of Kosovo, in 1989 Milosevic abolished the Kosovo’s constitutional status granted in 1974 by the Yugoslavia’s constitution. Organizations which supported independence of Kosovo organized “referendum” in 1991 and “Kosovo Republic” was declared as a result. Afterwards with the leadership of Ibrahim Rugova Albanian resistance started. Later Kosovo Liberation Army organized and led the armed resistance against Serbian Administration. In 1998 Serbia conducted operation in Kosovo. Talks to solve the crisis held in Rambouillet ended with failure and NATO operation against Serbia started in March 1999 and in June 1999 Kosovo Force settled in Kosovo.[xiv] Negotiations about the status of Kosovo were failed and then United Nations Special Envoy of Kosovo, Ahtisaari presented the plan about the status of Kosovo.  Ahtisaari suggested independence for Kosovo.[xv] Despite the rejection of Serbia, on 17 February 2008 Kosovo declared independence. While the US and some EU countries recognized the independence of Kosovo, they did not recognize TRNC. The negotiation process continues in order to solve the Cyprus question. However, considering the fact that the two communities in Cyprus have lived separately since 1974 (de facto separation since 1963) and their differences (ethnic, linguistic, religious and cultural etc.), it would be logical to envisage the two separate state in Cyprus. Just like in Kosovo, rather tense historical process existed in Cyprus between the two communities.[xvi]

Another important event after the independence of Kosovo came with the war in Georgia, which impacted on Russia’s relations with the West and opened discussion about the new international atmosphere all over the world including Central Asia. That atmosphere has great impact on the Cyprus question. In fact post-Cold War rapprochement between Russia and the West started to be deteriorated after the Kosovo’s declaration of independence and the US and some other Western countries’ recognition of this declaration. Together with the US’s Missile Shield project, Russia felt that the US followed containment policy. Russian discomfort increased when the US’s influence reached the Caucasus and Central Asia. The tension between Russia and the US’s ally Georgia created conflict due to the Abkhazia and South Ossetia problems. As a result of the conflict Russia invaded Georgia and recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.[xvii] Russia seemed to take revenge of Kosovo. Independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia indicated the fact that post-Cold War trend of joining the new states in the international community continued. After Kosovo became independent, the arguments about the differences of Kosovo and Cyprus indicated the population issue on the table, however, considering the fact that population of Abkhazia is about 200.000 and population of South Ossetia is 70.000, the population argument became invalid.  Abkhazia and South Ossetia examples would impact on the parameters of Cyprus question. From now on the Turkish side would much strongly support and push the arguments of equal rights and participation of the Turks in the administration and guarantor status of Turkey. Turkish side should question some of the articles in the Annan Plan under the circumstances of new developments in the global arena after the referendum of Annan Plan. TRNC’s ties with Central Asian states would strengthen the Turkish side in the negotiations vis a vis SCGA.

 In terms of TRNC relations with Central Asian republics, it should be noted there are differences in regards to Central Asian states’ approaches towards TRNC. As we mentioned above Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan have developing ties with TRNC. However, TRNC’s ties with the other republics are far from the expected level. Apart from the reasons related to Turkey’s relations with each Central Asian republics and TRNC’s efforts to establish ties with these republics, there are also reasons related to domestic structure and foreign policies of Central Asian republics. The republics have strong relations with Turkey, intended to have developing ties with TRNC. In some countries TRNC has much more effort than others in terms of representation. However, Central Asian republics’ policies towards the similar cases are the important factor, which impact on their policy towards TRNC. Most of the Central Asian countries hesitated to recognize the new states’ independence. For example, Kosovo’s independence was only recognized by Afghanistan among the Central Asian states.[xviii] Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Dushanbe in August 2008 gave indication of at least SCO members’ attitude towards the declaration of independence. In that meeting, despite the SCO members voiced their support of Russia’s action towards the crisis in Georgia, they did not support Russia’s move to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.[xix] For this reason, it is difficult to accept them to recognize the TRNC at this stage. However, at least two or three of these states might establish very close relations with TRNC. One of the reasons for Central Asian states’ hesitation is that the negotiation process continued in the Cyprus question. Depends on the result of the negotiations among the two communities, Central Asian republics and also other states outside the EU might change their policy towards TRNC. If the negotiation process results with failure, the both sides of the island will continue their existence separately as it is now. If this happens, Central Asian states will get closer to the recognition of TRNC.

Conclusion

TRNC’s ties with Central Asian republics were effected from the international environment and as well as these states’ foreign policies. Developments in the international environment, particularly, after the referendum of Annan Plan worked for the benefit of TRNC. The independence of Montenegro in 2006, Kosovo in 2008 and Abkhazian and South Ossetian separation from Georgia created the new understanding about the problem areas in the world. TRNC’s ties with the Central Asian Republics inevitably will be affected from this atmosphere. However, change in the international atmosphere will not be enough to improve TRNC and Central Asian relations. TRNC should implement a comprehensive strategy, which should be based on effective representation in these republics. TRNC should open representative offices widely in Central Asia. Representative offices might encourage the activities ranges from sportive one to the conferences between TRNC and Central Asian states. Travel agencies in Turkey might coordinate travels from Central Asia to Northern Cyprus.

Central Asian states hesitate to establish strong ties with TRNC. One reason for this is that some of them feel threat regarding to their territorial integrity so they do not want to encourage the new states to join the international community. Another reason is the negotiation process in the Cyprus question between the two communities. In the case of its failure, TRNC may find many states to recognize it. It is no doubt that stronger ties between TRNC and Central Asian states in bilateral relations as well as in the international organizations strengthen TRNC in the international arena.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Kamer KASIM*