- According to the ISRO Foreign Policy Perception Survey (FFPPS) comprising 1000 respondents, % 61, 06 of the Turkish public see Turkey's future in the European Union. There is 5,153 points increase in respondents selecting the EU option according to the first survey done 7 months before.
- Turkish people consider Turkic Republics as friends of Turkey. Approximately half of the population of Turkey selected Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan as "true friends of Turkey". Germany's fast increase in the list is very striking.
- It is very significant that some of the Far East countries, like Japan and South Korea, take place in the list of the friendly countries. Japan exceeded Bosnia-Herzegova, Uzbekistan, Pakistan which are in the list of friendly countries and gained 4th rank.
- According to the Survey, an important majority of the people considers the USA as a threat to Turkey and world peace. On the contrary, Turkish public expects the biggest assistance from the USA when Turkey confront a catastrophic disaster or war (% 27,05).
- In the list of countries of perception of threat, Greece is increasing rapidly.
- An important fraction of Turkish Public still considers Turkish foreign policy unsuccessful. Also, it is significant that there is an increase from % 31,265 to % 44,22.
- The overwhelming majority of the Turkish Republic still thinks that many states still plan to divide Turkey. But there is an increase of 6,6 points in confidence to international system.
- According to the ISRO Foreign Policy Perception Survey (FFPPS) comprising 1000 respondents, % 61, 06 of the Turkish public see Turkey's future in the European Union. There is 5,153 points increase in respondents selecting the EU option according to the first survey done 7 months before.
- Turkish people consider Turkic Republics as friends of Turkey. Approximately half of the population of Turkey selected Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan as "true friends of Turkey". Germany's fast increase in the list is very striking.
- It is very significant that some of the Far East countries, like Japan and South Korea, take place in the list of the friendly countries. Japan exceeded Bosnia-Herzegova, Uzbekistan, Pakistan which are in the list of friendly countries and gained 4th rank.
- According to the Survey, an important majority of the people considers the USA as a threat to Turkey and world peace. On the contrary, Turkish public expects the biggest assistance from the USA when Turkey confront a catastrophic disaster or war (% 27,05).
- In the list of countries of perception of threat, Greece is increasing rapidly.
- An important fraction of Turkish Public still considers Turkish foreign policy unsuccessful. Also, it is significant that there is an increase from % 31,265 to % 44,22.
- The overwhelming majority of the Turkish Republic still thinks that many states still plan to divide Turkey. But there is an increase of 6,6 points in confidence to international system.
The Second (Current) Survey: October 2004
First Survey: April 2004.
Head of the Survey Committee: Dr. Sedat LAÇİNER
The Survey, which was requested by the International Strategic Research Organization ISRO/USAK) in Ankara, was made in September among 1000 interviewees in 5 major Turkish cities (Ankara, Istanbul, Izmir, Bursa, and Canakkale) and tested the Turkish people's perception regarding the foreign policy issues. This is the second survey. The first survey had been made in April 2004.
The number in the brackets shows the state's previous rank in the first survey.
Q.1.: "Threat Perception? Index" From Which Country You Perceive the Most Threat to Turkey?"
2. SURVEY 1. SURVEY CHANGE
1. U.S. (1) % 26.1 % 27 - 1,1
2. Greece (2) % 16.9 % 18,01 - 1,11
3. Armenia (3) % 13 % 14,2 - 1,2
4. Israel (6) % 10.02 % 7.75 + 2.27
5. U.K. (4) % 10 % 11.7 - 1.7
6. Greek Cyprus (5) % 9.5 % 7.7 + 1.8
7. Russia (7) % 3.4 % 3.5 - 0.1
8. France (11) % 2.5 % 1.46 + 1,04
9. Iraq (8) % 2.25 % 1.87 - 0.38
10. Iran (9) % 2.2 % 2.2 0
11. Syria (10) % 2 % 2.1 - 0.1
12. Other % 2.13 % 1.7 + 0.43
The first three countries remain stable in the ranking of threat perception within the last 7 months. The most striking aspect of the list is that Israel has gone up in the perception of threat. Israel, 6th in the earlier survey, rose to 4th in the rank of the second survey. Moreover, it has the highest incremental point (2.27) in the perception of threat. According to experts of the ISRO, the most important reason of this increase is the allegations against Israel which she supported Kurdish separatist groups in Iraq. Even though Israel does not accept those allegations, the activities of Israel get immense reaction from Turkish Public Opinion. In addition to that, Palestinian policy of Israel can also be regarded as a source of negative point in the survey for Israel. The fact that the perception of threat of Greece dropped by - 1,1 points, is a rejoicing situation for Turkish-Greek relations. This most radical drop can be attributed to softened relations between Turkey and Greece, and the friendly atmosphere of Olympics. The other country climbing the upper rank is France. The main reason for this seems to be the negative attitude of France against Turkish membership to EU and the increasing activities of Armenian lobby against Turkey in this country.
Q.2.: "Friendship Perception Index" Please list the three most friendl country for Turkey"
2. SURVEY 1. SURVEY CHANGE
1. Azerbaijan (1) % 22 % 23,413 - 1,413
2. Turmenistan (2) % 9 % 13,672 - 4,62
3. Germany (7) % 8,2 % 5,63 + 2,57
4. Japan (3) % 8,03 % 7,685 + 0,345
5. Bosnia (5) % 7,2 % 6,52 + 0,68
6. Uzbekistan (4) % 6,8 % 6,6 + 0,2
7. U.S. (9) % 6,1 % 5,3 + 0,8
8. South Korea (8) % 6 % 5,8 + 0,2
9. Kazakhstan (6) % 5,9 % 5,8 + 0,1
10. Kyrgyzstan (11) % 3,4 % 2 + 1,4
11. Pakistan (10) % 3 % 2,144 + 0,856
12. Italy % 0.5 - + 0,5
Other % 13,87 % 15,436 - 1,566
The surveyors found that Azerbaijan is considered a true friend of Turkey. It is significant that Germany has jumped in the list from the 7th to 3rd rank.
Extremely striking improvements occurred in Friendship Perception Index. Firstly, Germany seems to be among the first three ranks. Germany which was 7th in the earlier ranking and got only % 5.63 points has risen in terms of both percentage and point (+ 2,57). The experts of ISRO consider that this sharp increase has occurred due to the positive attitude of Germany for Turkish membership to EU. On the other hand, the fact that Israel lost its place within the first 12 rank and Italy replaced Israel is very striking. The shares of Turkish Republics in the list are also significant; but in this survey the sum of their shares (Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan) is below % 50 (47.1). Germany, the USA, Italy are regarded as friends in the West.
Q.3.: Assistance Perception Index. "What country would you count on to support Turkey in time of crisis (earthquake, civil war, war etc.)?
2. SURVEY 1. SURVEY CHANGE
1. U.S. (1) % 27.05 % 28.677 - 1.627
2. Germany (2) % 15.1 % 13.780 + 8.68
3. Japan (3) % 10.4 % 11.08 - 0.68
4. Greece (5) % 7.2 % 6.7 + 0.5
5. Azerbaijan (6) % 6.1 % 5.95 + 0.15
6. U.K. (4) % 6.00 % 7.541 - 1.541
7. Israel (8) % 3.2 % 3.445 - 0,45
8. France (10) % 3.2 % 2.7 + 0.5
9. Italy (-) % 3.15 - + 3.15
10. South Korea (9) % 2.5 % 2.8 - 0.3
11. Turkmenistan (7) % 2.1 % 3.7 - 1.6
12. Russia (-) % 2 - + 2
Other % 12 % 13,627 - 1,627
The Turks have been also asked the question "what country would you count on to support Turkey in time of crisis (an earthquake, civil war, war etc.). The survey has revealed that the Turkish people consider the US, Germany and Japan to be lending a helping hand in those devastating conditions. The poll has also found out that the EU member states are considered as the most reliable group of states in Turkey (34, 65).
Q.4.: "Which one can be long-term partner for Turkey? Which one of these groups or states do you see Turkey's future in?"
2. SURVEY 1. SURVEY CHANGE
1. European Union (1) % 61,06 % 55,907
2. Turkic World (2) % 18,1 % 23,711
3. Euroasian Union (3) % 11,94 % 10,072
4. Islamic World (4) % 6,8 % 5,670
5. U.S. (5) % 2,1 % 4,639
Every improvement in Turkey-EU relations seems to be reflected in the Survey. In addition, the EU getting the support of the more than half of the respondents of the earlier survey rose up to % 61,6 in the last survey. When compared with other options, it is easily said that the EU is the hope for the future according to Turkish public. The decrease of the ranking of Turkish world and the USA is very appealing.
Q.5.: Trust to International Community Index. "Do you think some forces abroad make plans to destabilize Turkey?"
2. SURVEY 1. SURVEY CHANGE
Yes % 64 % 69.6 - 5.6
No % 22 % 15.4 + 6.6
I do not know % 16 % 14.9 + 1.1
The conviction that the exterior powers plans to divide and harm Turkey is generally still maintaining; but the dissolution in the option of "yes" and the increase in "no" can be considered in this period as an increase of confidence to international public in Turkey.
Q.6.: Peace Threat Index. "Which country threatens the world peace most?"
2. SURVEY 1. SURVEY CHANGE
1. USA (1) % 42.5 % 43.541 - 1.041
2. Israel (2) % 24.3 % 17.465 + 6.835
3. UK (3) % 12.9 % 13.647 - 0.747
4. France (4) % 6 % 7.392 - 1.392
5. Russia (5) % 3.5 % 3.655 - 0.155
6. Greece (8) % 2.1 % 1.543 + 0.557
7. Iraq (6) % 1.5 % 2.924 - 1,424
8. Palestine (7) % 1.3 % 2.030 - 0.73
9. China (-) % 0.5 - + 0.5
Others % 5.4 % 6.6
1. USA (1) % 42.5 % 43.541 - 1.041
2. Israel (2) % 24.3 % 17.465 + 6.835
3. UK (3) % 12.9 % 13.647 - 0.747
4. France (4) % 6 % 7.392 - 1.392
5. Russia (5) % 3.5 % 3.655 - 0.155
6. Greece (8) % 2.1 % 1.543 + 0.557
7. Iraq (6) % 1.5 % 2.924 - 1,424
8. Palestine (7) % 1.3 % 2.030 - 0.73
9. China (-) % 0.5 - + 0.5
Others % 5.4 % 6.6
The fact that there is no change in upper 5 ranks of the list of countries threatening world peace indicates a stiffened situation for these countries. Moreover, even though Israel maintains its position in the list, the fact that Israel got an incremental 6.835 point between two surveys demonstrates a significant rise in the level of reaction against Israel. The USA, Israel and England comprise the first three ranks. Therefore, it can be regarded as a criticism to those countries' policies towards Iraq and Palestine. The surprise of this list can be regarded as China's entrance to the list.
Q.7. "Is Turkish Foreign Policy successful?
2. SURVEY 1. SURVEY CHANGE
Yes % 44,22 % 31,265 + 12,955
No % 51,00 % 54,571 - 3,571
I do not know % 4,78 % 14,160 - 9,32
The Turkish foreign policy had been considered unsuccessful by more than half of respondents of the earlier survey. This attribute remain stable in the new survey. Even though there is a decrease of -3.571, approximately the same numbers of respondents still consider Turkish foreign policy unsuccessful. On the other hand, the respondents saying "I do not know" and consisting of the biggest share of the first survey changed their mind significantly. Naturally this situation increases the percentage of who considers Turkish foreign policy successful.
Remembering The Orly Attack
